Tropical Storm Jerry grows, forecast to sideswipe Caribbean

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 8, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday forecast Tropical Storm Jerry to grow into a hurricane, but only after it swings past the Caribbean turning north into the Atlantic and avoiding a landfall.

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. Eastern time advisory, Jerry had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was located about 750 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwest at 23 mph.

A tropical storm watch continued for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat. St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

The system is expected to slow down its forward speed within the next couple of days then turn toward the north by Friday.

“On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night,” forecasters said. “Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend.”

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 125 miles from its center.

The intensity forecast only has it as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph sustained winds at its closest approach to the Leewards. It’s then expected to become the season’s fifth hurricane as it moves north, but is not expected to be a threat to land.

The storm is forecast to drop 2-4 inches of rain across the Leeward Islands with wind kicking up late Thursday. Heavy surf should begin hitting the islands earlier and spread to the Greater Antilles on Friday.

The NHC also continued to track a trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms headed for southern Mexico by Wednesday night, after which any chances for any development were expected to fall after it moved over land.

Of the 10 named storms so far, four have grown into hurricanes, with three of those reaching major hurricane status. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made a U.S. landfall so far this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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