Tropical Storm Jerry forecast to sideswipe Caribbean as hurricane

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 8, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday forecast Tropical Storm Jerry to grow into a hurricane as it approaches the Caribbean, but turn north into the Atlantic avoiding a landfall.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, Jerry had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph located about 835 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwest at 23 mph.

A tropical storm watch continued for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat. St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

The system is expected to slow down its forward speed within the next couple of days then turn toward the north by Friday.

“On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday,” forecasters said. “Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.”

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 125 miles from its center.

The intensity forecast only has it as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds and 100 mph gusts at its closest approach. While the storm could intensify further after that, it’s not expected to be a threat to land.

The storm is forecast to drop 2-4 inches of rain across the Leeward Islands with wind kicking up late Thursday. Heavy surf should begin hitting the islands earlier and spread to the Greater Antilles on Friday.

The NHC also continued to track a trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

After Jerry, the next name on the tropical cyclone list is Karen.

Of the 10 named storms so far, four have grown into hurricanes, with three of those reaching major hurricane status. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made a U.S. landfall so far this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

------------