The National Hurricane Center on Monday continued to give high chances that a system in the Atlantic will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm and threaten the Caribbean.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure associated with a low-altitude tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L was becoming better organized in the central tropical Atlantic.

“Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress.”

The NHC gave it a 70% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.

The forecast bubble for just where it could form includes parts of the Caribbean. Most models have the system moving out into the open Atlantic and not becoming a threat to Florida or the U.S. coast.

It could become the 10th tropical cyclone of the 2025 season, and could form into Tropical Storm Jerry.

The NHC also began tracking a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and early Tuesday, and then track over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle of the week.”

Heavy rain and winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico in the next few days regardless of development.

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

_____

©2025 Orlando Sentinel. Visit at orlandosentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.