Tropical Storm Jerry forms, forecast to grow into hurricane approaching Caribbean

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 7, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said Tropical Storm Jerry had formed in the Atlantic with a forecast it will intensify into a hurricane that could threaten the Caribbean.

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. advisory, the 10th named storm of the 2025 season had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph located about 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving west at 24 mph.

“A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.” said NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi. “Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two.”

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 140 miles from its center.

“The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding moisture,” Cangialosi said.

The forecast path has it intensifying to a strong Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 115 mph when it’s at its closest approach to the islands.

After that, most models have the system moving out into the open Atlantic and not becoming a threat to Florida or the U.S. coast, but Bermuda could be threatened.

The NHC also continued to track a trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It is is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche later Tuesday.

“Some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico during the next couple of days.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

After Jerry, the next name on the tropical cyclone list is Karen.

Of the 10 named storms so far, four have grown into hurricanes, with three of those reaching major hurricane status. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made a U.S. landfall so far this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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