Forecasters scale back hurricane prediction, but risk to Florida remains the same

Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun Sentinel on Sep 11, 2025

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Forecasters have slightly reduced the number of expected hurricanes and named storms in the Atlantic this year following an “unusually quiet” period of activity during the peak of hurricane season.

AccuWeather is now predicting 13 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes, according to an update Thursday. Its previous forecast, issued in March, predicted 13 to 18 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes.

The estimated range of storms with direct impacts to the U.S. remains the same, however, at three to six.

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are constantly refining and integrating new data into our predictions,” Alex DaSilva, the company’s lead hurricane expert, said in a prepared statement. “Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.”

AccuWeather is still forecasting three to five major hurricanes this season. DaSilva emphasized that people should not let their guards down, pointing to hurricanes Helene and Milton, both of which developed after the peak of hurricane season and made landfall in Florida.

So far in 2025, there have been six named storms.

Forecasters are watching a potential system near west Africa, expected to become a tropical wave by Friday. Conditions could support slow development of the system as it moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, and it’s been given a 30% chance of formation in the next seven days.

The next named storm would be Gabrielle.