Sam Farmer's Week 17 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 17 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 9-7 (.563) record. Through the first 16 weeks of the season, he is 154-86 (.642).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 16 would have been 8-8 (.500). For the season, his record against the spread is 116-124 (.483).

All times are Pacific.

Cowboys (6-8-1) at Commanders (4-11)

Thursday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 50 1/2.

Washington has been wildly inconsistent, so bad losses in two of the past three weeks have created more questions than answers. Dallas is treating this like a three-game season, plans to play Dak Prescott, and still has more overall talent.

Pick: Cowboys 24, Commanders 20

Lions (8-7) at Vikings (7-8)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Lions by 7 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Detroit is technically still alive and playing with urgency after a loss that had to bruise morale. Dan Campbell won't let the Lions drift, and Minnesota's offense hasn't shown enough to exploit Detroit's defensive flaws. Jared Goff snaps back to form here.

Pick: Lions 27, Vikings 21

Broncos (12-3) at Chiefs (6-9)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 13 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

Having lost two quarterbacks, Kansas City is reeling. Denver is locked in on a division title and doesn't have time for pity, especially coming off a two-touchdown loss to Jacksonville. Denver's defense will make things difficult on an inexperienced passer.

Pick: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10

Texans (10-5) at Chargers (11-4)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Houston has been a hard matchup for the Chargers, and can turn up the heat on Justin Herbert. But Jim Harbaugh's team has found new ways to win, and is capable of outscoring the Texans, who are really struggling in the red zone. Low-scoring and physical.

Pick: Chargers 20, Texans 17

Ravens (7-8) at Packers (9-5-1)

Saturday, 5 p.m.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

If the Packers win, they're in. That's enough incentive for a team that has lost back-to-back games on the road and is returning home to Lambeau Field for a prime-time game. Hard to trust a Baltimore team that has lost three of four.

Pick: Packers 23, Ravens 18

Jaguars (11-4) at Colts (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Philip Rivers was must-watch TV and turned in two win-worthy performances. He got next to no help from his defense, though, and — no matter who is at quarterback — Jacksonville should be able to own this one. The No. 1 seed is still up for grabs.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 17

Seahawks (12-3) at Panthers (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Seahawks by 7 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Carolina has made a big step up this season and is giving opponents problems, including the Rams. Seattle is playing elite football, though, and Sam Darnold would love to come back and hand his old team an L. The Seahawks keep it rolling.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 17

Steelers (9-6) at Browns (3-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 34 1/2.

Huge win by Pittsburgh, knocking off Detroit. The Steelers have won three in a row and respond well to pressure. Cleveland's defense offers some resistance, but the Browns won't get a lot of help from their rookie quarterback. This figures to be pretty lopsided.

Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 12

Buccaneers (7-8) at Dolphins (6-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 5 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Week after week, Tampa Bay fails to get its act together. The Buccaneers have lost six of seven. Miami is nothing special, but at least the Dolphins don't seem stuck in a rut. They're at home here, and bounce back from a blowout loss to Cincinnati.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Buccaneers 21

Patriots (12-3) at Jets (3-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 13 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Patriots could wind up the top seed and aren't going to let down against a Jets team that doesn't have much to offer. Playing for pride isn't going to slow this Patriots train, and Mike Vrabel will have his team ready.

Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 9

Cardinals (3-12) at Bengals (5-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 7. O/U: 53 1/2.

Zero points one week, 45 the next? Cincinnati is wildly unpredictable. The Cardinals are more predictable — they just continue to lose. Arizona keeps this interesting for a while, but Joe Burrow makes the difference and the Bengals pull away.

Pick: Bengals 27, Cardinals 21

Saints (5-10) at Titans (3-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Titans have some spark and have won two of three, so they could make this interesting. New Orleans has won three in a row and seems fractionally ahead of Tennessee at this point. Good matchup of bad teams.

Pick: Saints 23, Titans 20

Giants (2-13) at Raiders (2-13)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 1 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

After getting shut out by Philadelphia, the Raiders bounced back and put up a good fight against Houston. They could be primed to pick up a victory against a team having a similarly dismal season. Home team kicks a field goal to win it.

Pick: Raiders 20, Giants 17

Eagles (10-5) at Bills (11-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

This could be a Super Bowl preview. The Eagles are riding a two-game win streak, but against bad teams. Buffalo is winning tight games, can control the clock and shorten the game by running the ball, and holds on to win at home.

Pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24

Bears (11-4) at 49ers (11-4)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 3. O/U: 52 1/2.

As they showed against Indianapolis, the 49ers are a cut above. Chicago is having a magical season, and Caleb Williams is Houdini. Still, San Francisco protects the football, stays patient, and wins this one at home.

Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 17

Rams (11-4) at Falcons (6-9)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Rams by 8 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Rams are rested and ready to wash away that soul-crushing loss at Seattle. They remain an elite team and have a chance to show that again before a national audience. If this team is going to make the run it should, that run starts now.

Pick: Rams 34, Falcons 20