Greg Cote's Week 17 NFL picks

After a great week, a bit of a downturn last week. We’ll begrudgingly take 10-6 straight-up (if we must), but net-losing three more games vs. the betting line won’t cut it. Some good news: Nailed our Upset of the Week with Chargers winning in Dallas (”Aawwk!”), had another outright upset with Seahawks beating Rams, and also had Patriots with points. But not enough else hit for me. (The push was Vikings winning by three.) [Note: Our three Thursday/Christmas Day picks were Cowboys (6-8-1, -7) over @Commanders (4-11), 34-17; Lions (8-7, -6) over @Vikings (7-8), 27-20; and Broncos (12-3, -13 1/2) over @Chiefs (6-9), 24-10.]

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— Week 16: 10-6, .625 overall; 6-9-1, .406 against the spread.

— Season: 156-83, .653 overall; 114-121-4, .485 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (12-3) at PANTHERS (8-7)

Line: SEA by 7 1/2.

Cote’s pick: SEA, 31-16.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

The GOTW panelists were running around like headless chickens trying to make a pick this week, but settled on a matchup with heavy playoff impact and stakes both ways. Seattle has clinched a postseason ticket but still has a real shot at the NFC West title and even the No. 1 seed. It just needs first to win out. Upstart Carolina is in league’s fiercest playoff fight in an NFC South winner-take-all with Tampa Bay. Panthers can win the division and clinch playoffs by beating Seattle — if Tampa loses (at Miami) in a concurrent game. Bottom line? Seahawks are the better team here. By a lot. Panthers are NFL’s worst winning-record team. By a lot. Upsets happen, sure. Couple of Sam Darnold giveaways could make this one. But I’d doubt it. Seattle is the Super Bowl contender too few are talking about. Watch ‘em prove it.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (7-8) at PACKERS (9-5-1)

Line: GB by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-23.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Peacock.

“AAWWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “I’m dreaming of a purple Christmaaawk ...” Entering the later of two Saturday games, Green Bay has a 92.7% playoff likelihood and clinches with a win or if Detroit loses Thursday. Baltimore is at 7.1% and must win out and pray. But this pick is pegged more to the QB situations. Lamar Jackson is iffy (back) but seemed likely to play. Jordan Love playing (concussion) seemed more a gamble — especially if a Lions loss makes sitting him more probable, even smart. But with Pack backup Malik Willis also hurt, the chance is there then for No. 3 Clayton Tune to get the call. All those factors make me lean Ravens, who’ve been better on the road than at home this year. “This is a lot of faith in an L-Jack who’s been disappointing his fantasy owners all year,” notes U-Bird, rather snidely but not wrong. “Baltimaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 17:

Note: Our three Thursday/Christmas Day picks were Cowboys (6-8-1, -7) over @Commanders (4-11), 34-17; Lions (8-7, -6) over @Vikings (7-8), 27-20; and Broncos (12-3, -13 1/2) over @Chiefs (6-9), 24-10.

@Chargers (11-4, -2 1/2) over Texans (10-5), 21-17: The earlier of the two Saturday games was the toughest call of Week 17 for us. Both teams have clinched playoff spots (well, Houston is at 98%), but both need help to win their division. Both are crazy-hot, Texans with seven straight wins and Bolts on a four-game roll. Houston’s defense is better, but still riding LAC at home.

@Bengals (5-10, -7) over Cardinals (3-12), 34-23: One of only four games with both teams out of it and zero playoff ramifications. Two terrible defenses here; why the over/under is 53 1/2. The difference: One team has packed it in; ‘Zona with seven straight L’s. The other team is home and has Joe Burrow. As Miami learned last week, Joe’s toe feels real good again.

Steelers (9-6, -3 1/2) over @Browns (3-12), 19-16: Pittsburgh is 92.9% playoff likely but clinches AFC North title with a win here — or if Baltimore loses Saturday. That’s big, because Pitt might then take its foot off the gas. As is, we’ll count on Steelers and Aaron Rodgers to stay hot, even with DK Metcalf suspended for a fan altercation. Like Earthtones at home in a huge rivalry to keep it close, though ... cover-close.

Saints (5-10, -2 1/2) over @Titans (3-12), 30-24: Another of four No Hope Bowls, but N’Awlins has won three in a row and Tenners just beat Chiefs. A.k.a., these two teams haven’t quit yet. Records like this scream erratic, but Saints have a strong edge on defense, and QB Tyler Shough has impressed a bit.

Jaguars (11-4, -6 1/2) over @Colts (8-7), 27-24: Jax has its playoff ticket and wins division with a win here and a loss by Houston, though AFC seed remains a long shot. Indy was beginning to crumble even before Daniel Jones went out and is down to 2 percent postseason-probable. That means Colts must win out and hope a few other teams get hit by meteors. At least the exhuming of Philip Rivers has kept the Nags fun to watch. That, home, and Jonathan Taylor will keep this inside the bet-line.

Buccaneers (7-8, -5 1/2) over @Dolphins (6-9), 24-20: Not much evidence there is a good team in this game, let alone two. Miami was buried under a 1-6 start, couldn’t climb out, got eliminated, and now flails to find a quarterback, hoping it was right to bench Tua Tagovailoa (that’s dubious), and praying against odds that Quinn Ewers is the answer. Tampa Bay? The Bucs and wilting Baker Mayfield are slip-slidin’ with three straight losses and six in the past seven games and yet somehow are still alive for the sad NFC South crown. Tampa will be eliminated if they lose to the Fins and Carolina wins in a concurrent game. I give Miami a medium-to-large upset shot mainly because Tampa has sort of stunk for going on two months. I just don’t trust Ewers yet, and Mike McDaniel was comically wrong saying the rookie gives Miami a better chance to win than Tua did. The stinky and over-regarded Bucs are giving too many points, though, so let’s play Miami to cover in a loss about as valiant as one can be when it’s your 10th.

Patriots (12-3, -13 1/2) over @Jets (3-12), 24-13: New England wants to finish this season 8-0 on the road and there isn’t much stopping that. Pats win AFC East with a victory if Bills lose, and are still in hunt for No. 1 seed. (Jets were eliminated from playoff contention in the Mesozoic Era.) Five words explain why Pats will win: Drake Maye vs. Brady Cook. Still, ‘home dogs rarely get this many points in such a rivalry.

Giants (2-13, +1 1/2) over @Raiders (2-13), 21-20: Upset! It’s the No. 1 Overall Draft Pick Bowl! Anybody want to win this? Really? Possible skulduggery on that answer messes with this pick a bit. I don’t know who’s bringing what actual want to this. And, NYG is winless on the road. But I’m still rolling dice on the slightly better team with more pop on offense led by Jaxson Dart.

@Bills (11-4, -1 1/2) over Eagles (10-5), 23-20: Should-a been the GOTW? No because both teams are playoff-clinched, with Philly already having sewn up NFC East, Buffs with only a small chance of winning AFC East and neither with much hope of No. 1 seed. So, if both can afford a loss, is the drive to win much factor? Assuming Josh Allen plays through a foot injury as fully expected, l like strong-at-home Bills vs. Birds who’ve lost thrice this year on the road.

@49ers (11-4, -3) over Bears (11-4), 37-27: Sunday night stage gives us another GOTW candidate based on records, but both already are playoff-clinched, so the stakes here are not top-level, although Chitown can clinch division with a win if Green Bay loses Saturday. Bears also enjoy rest edge after playing last Saturday while Niners toiled Monday night. Still, the better team here is the one at home. Though TE George Kittle (ankle) is at risk of sitting, I trust a hot Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey.

Rams (11-4, -7 1/2) over @Falcons (6-9), 27-23: Monday nighter presents another one of those “who’s more motivated?” matchups. L.A. has its playoff ticket punched, but unlikely to advance in the pecking order with a division crown. So, a by-the-numbers effort? Atlanta is eliminated but has shown bursts of not-bad this season. Will it bring something in prime-time at home? Give me the better team to win, and the home team to cover.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Wednesday morning.)