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Analysis: A quarter into season, Penguins show progress -- and a need for more in key areas

Jason Mackey, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on

Published in Hockey

PITTSBURGH — As Dan Muse spoke, the emotion, passion and honesty in his voice was evident.

His press conference following Saturday's 3-2 overtime loss to the Seattle Kraken felt like a breath of fresh air due to that level of rawness. But it was also indicative of the Penguins' precarious position around the NHL season's first quarter mark.

Is this a bad team coming off a hot start, or a good team enduring a bump in the road?

It's tough to handicap right now, the Penguins balancing a 8-2-2 start with a 2-4-3 November and needing to improve in a few areas to show those first 12 games weren't a fluke.

"We've taken some steps from the beginning of the year," Muse said. "There's also a lot of room for improvement. That's the exciting part.

"Taking it one day at a time and getting a little better each day, I think we've been doing that. But we have to continue to do that."

As the Penguins enjoy a Sunday break before games Wednesday, Friday and Saturday to close the month, let's examine what we've learned about this group and also what must change in December.

From the net out

What the Penguins are allowing this season compared to the past three isn't that different:

— Scoring chances against per 60 minutes of ice time 5-on-5: 29.5 the last three, 28.2 so far this year.

— High-danger chances against per 60: 11.7 versus 11.6.

— Expected goals against per 60: 2.66 the past three compared to 2.73 so far in 2025-26.

The difference, of course, has been the work of Tristan Jarry, Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov in goal. They've been outstanding — and a marked change over recent history.

Over the past three seasons, Penguins goaltenders had a save percentage (all situations) of .896. This year, Pittsburgh is tied for second with Chicago at .908.

"Good goalies mean good teams," Kevin Hayes said. "All three of our guys have been spectacular this year."

The question is whether it'll last.

Murashov didn't play a particularly strong game Saturday. Silovs struggled Friday. Jarry's start was encouraging but also represents an outlier over the past few seasons.

For the Penguins to sustain their start, the goaltending has to remain elite.

Aging well

It's been a fantastic start to the season for the team's franchise centers, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The former leads the Penguins in goals (13), the latter in points (24).

They're averaging more than a point per game, and Malkin has at least made valid the discussion about him remaining in Pittsburgh beyond this season.

But how long will their current levels sustain?

Nothing against Connor Dewar, who actually had a strong setup of Sid on Saturday, but Crosby's line is probably a scoring winger short. Malkin has done this before in his mid-to-late 30s — teased and faded.

Not saying it can't happen. Just that the Penguins will very much need Crosby and Malkin to be this good.

Because ...

 

Supporting cast

The depth scoring that buttressed that impressive start has faded.

After scoring six times and totaling 12 points through Pittsburgh's first dozen games, Justin Brazeau has been hurt, although his return isn't far off.

Brazeau's linemate opposite Malkin, Anthony Mantha, has managed just one assist over the past four following a stretch where he produced eight goals and 13 points in Pittsburgh's first 17 games.

Lastly, Ben Kindel's assist Saturday was his first point in six games after the rookie came out of the gates hot, scoring five times and amassing seven points through 13 games.

Bottom line, the Penguins need more from their ... well, bottom lines. That was a hallmark of the strong start, the depth guys getting involved, and it hasn't been nearly as prevalent of late.

Resilience needed

Asked what he's learned about the Penguins so far, Ryan Shea didn't hesitate — and needed only a few words to answer the question.

"We're pretty resilient," he said.

Shea's point was the Penguins weathering the loss of seven players to injured reserve, which is certainly a lot. But the more those have piled up, the more they've simply felt like too much to overcome.

Brazeau and Jarry should return soon. Ville Koivunen is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Rickard Rakell optimistically could return by mid-December.

They'll be needed, too, because the Penguins have a brutal December ahead: 14 games, including nine against 2024-25 postseason teams, and seven of those on the road.

Not a surprise given his contract and 35-goal season in 2024-25, the Penguins really miss Rakell. Having more scoring to cover defensive or goaltending doldrums would be a helpful deodorant.

"In an 82-game season, you're gonna to have off nights," Shea said. "We've also outplayed teams and didn't get the result.

"It's easy to let that get the team down, but we haven't done that because we know how we have to play to beat those teams."

Fair enough. But lately there's certainly been some wheel-spinning. Has to change.

Stay special

The only thing more volatile than goaltending might be special teams. It's nearly as important, too.

While these Penguins have remained in the fight via strong goaltending, an opportunistic power play and stingy penalty kill have also defined the first 21 games.

Pittsburgh leads the NHL in power-play percentage at 32.0. It's fourth in penalty-killing success rate at 85.3%. Furthermore, the Penguins are 6-3-2 when getting at least one power play goal and 1-4-1 when they allow the opposing team to score one.

The power play was trending down — too many passes, a glaring need to simplify — until Malkin's power play goal. The PK gave up one Friday (where the entire team was rotten) but had also killed 29 of 31 (.93.5%) over the previous 11.

If these units can remain somewhere between good and great, it'll help the Penguins cover up other weaknesses. If they can't, well, there could be a problem here.

"You look at our year, special teams has been very good and needs to continue to be good," Muse said. "But our 5-on-5 game also has to continue to take steps. We want to make sure we're looking at all areas of the game."

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© 2025 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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