Sam Farmer's Week 15 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 6-8 (.429) record. Through the first 14 weeks of the season, he is 136-72 (.654).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 14 would have been 3-11 (.214). For the season, his record against the spread is 101-107 (.486).

All times are Pacific.

Falcons (4-9) at Buccaneers (7-6)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Buccaneers by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Buccaneers are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Baker Mayfield hasn't been sharp, but desperation can be a powerful healing agent. Tampa Bay is still alive in the division race and faces a Falcons team that has clearly mailed it in after a brutal loss to the Saints and elimination from playoff contention. Even though this should be close, Tampa finds a way.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20

Chargers (9-4) at Chiefs (6-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 4 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Both teams are desperate and chasing the same playoff lane, although Chargers beating Philadelphia was big. The Chargers have had Kansas City's number at times, but beating the Chiefs in the cold when it matters is another story. This one figures to come down to the wire, but the Chargers should be able to come away with a win and season sweep.

Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 18

Raiders (2-11) at Eagles (8-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 11 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Raiders fans are covering their eyes, as well they should. The team is a disaster with coaching confusion, eroding confidence, and an offense that can't stay organized. Despite a slew of issues of its own, Philadelphia rolls here. Doesn't matter who the Raiders put on the field.

Pick: Eagles 30, Raiders 13

Bills (9-4) at Patriots (11-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Patriots are swarming on defense, especially against the run where they're ranked third in the league. Buffalo's defense is great against the pass but lousy against the run. This feels like another cold, grind-it-out AFC East game where New England's toughness prevails.

Pick: Patriots 26, Bills 21

Ravens (6-7) at Bengals (4-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Baltimore had five turnovers when these teams met in Week 13. The Bengals aren't mailing anything in with Joe Burrow still fighting, and Cincinnati has scored 30-plus points and lost three times in the last six games. As shaky as the Bengals defense has been, the Ravens aren't generating enough to match that scoring output.

Pick: Bengals 30, Ravens 24

Browns (3-10) at Bears (9-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 7 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Chicago keeps pace in the NFC North behind Caleb Williams' remarkable escapability. Nobody seems able to get him on the ground. Cleveland's defense can be impressive at times, but the Titans just lit them up for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns, raising real questions. Ugly weather favors the Bears' resiliency.

Pick: Bears 24, Browns 20

Commanders (3-10) at Giants (2-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Giants by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Washington is a mess. Jayden Daniels keeps getting hit, key players continue to go down, and last week's 31-0 embarrassment against the Vikings wasn't a fluke. The Zach Ertz injury drained the team emotionally. The Giants aren't explosive, but they bring juice on defense and should control this one.

Pick: Giants 23, Commanders 16

Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (9-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 12 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Jacksonville is looking good with Liam Coen dialing up the offense, and the Jets' quarterback situation remains a revolving door with no workable answers. The Jaguars have the No. 1 run defense in the league, and they run it with authority, a hard combination to beat. This one could get out of hand.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Jets 13

Cardinals (3-10) at Texans (8-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 9 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Arizona plays teams close early but eventually gets overwhelmed. We saw that with the Rams. Houston's defense continues to look like a throwback to the 2000 Ravens or 2008 Steelers, especially after its latest showing. The Cardinals' defense has collapsed after a brief early-season surge, and their offense doesn't have the firepower to threaten Houston.

Pick: Texans 24, Cardinals 14

Lions (8-5) at Rams (10-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Rams by 5 1/2. O/U: 54 1/2.

This has the makings of an instant classic. The Lions have overcome a lot but face a Rams team playing at the NFL's highest level, with a defensive front that's disrupting everything and Matthew Stafford operating with surgical precision. Detroit won't run it the way they have on others, and Rams have the one-two punch of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.

Pick: Rams 27, Lions 20

Packers (9-3-1) at Broncos (11-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 2 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

An old-school, defensive December game on grass in the cold. Denver, riding a 10-game winning streak, has a strange fourth-quarter magic that simply can't be coached or replicated. At home, that gives them the edge against a Green Bay team that has won four in a row.

Pick: Broncos 17, Packers 14

Panthers (7-6) at Saints (3-10)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Carolina comes off the bye with the NFC South within reach and real incentives at stake. The Saints play hard weekly despite limited talent, but Carolina wants revenge after New Orleans took the first matchup.

Pick: Panthers 30, Saints 21

Titans (2-11) at 49ers (9-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 12 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The 49ers emerge from the bye healthier than they've been all season and continue to find ways to win despite earlier attrition. They have won four of five. Tennessee just surrendered 29 points to Cleveland and now faces a much more complete team.

Pick: 49ers 28, Titans 13

Colts (8-5) at Seahawks (10-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 13 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Seattle rolls. Daniel Jones was playing well before the injury, but with him out and Riley Leonard not ready for this stage, the Colts will have a tough time keeping up. The Seahawks' defense and complementary football overwhelm Indianapolis.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Colts 17

Vikings (5-8) at Cowboys (6-6-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line:Cowboys by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Dallas' defense is capable of exposing Minnesota's shortcomings. The Vikings look anemic on offense — Washington rout notwithstanding — and Brian Flores' aggressive defensive scheme is vulnerable to Dak Prescott's quick-hitting answers and man-beater routes.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Vikings 17

Dolphins (6-7) at Steelers (7-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Miami has quietly turned into a problem over the past 1 1/2 months. They have won five of six. Even in cold weather, their speed stresses defenses, and burners like De'Von Achane have gashed the Steelers historically. Pittsburgh just isn't generating explosive plays.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Steelers 20