Sam McDowell: Andy Reid's go-to phrase after losses isn't a problem. The issue is it's true.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The stalest phrase in Kansas City first turned up some 5,000 miles, three time zones and one entire continent away.

Well, first turned up this year.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid walked into a postgame news conference in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the aftermath of a Week 1 loss to the Chargers, and greeted a question from international media with a response he would bring home with him.

“We’ve to clean up,” he began a reply.

A week later, the Chiefs were back in Kansas City, Reid back in a postgame news conference after an 0-2 start, though this one in a far more familiar setting.

“We’ve got to clean up some things,” he said.

A couple of months later, on the heels of their only 5-5 start in the Patrick Mahomes era, Reid used some form of those two words — clean up — eight times over the span of two media sessions.

Eight.

And on Thanksgiving last week, after a loss in Dallas that put the Chiefs on the outside of the playoff picture even in the friendlier analytic models, Reid opened with it before a question even arrived.

“No excuses,” he said. “We’ll work on cleaning it up.”

It’s become perhaps the most tired phrase in Kansas City, its mere mention providing an outlet for frustration that a Super Bowl contender is instead a 6-6 football team.

But also? It’s among the most true.

The phrase — clean some things up — is usually used rather vaguely. But when Reid does expand the reply, he lands in the same place, the very place he landed in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

“We’ve to clean up,” he said then, “some of the penalties that we’ve had.”

Clean up.

There it was. Here it’s stayed.

The exhaustion shouldn’t derive from the expression’s usage. It ought to rest with its accuracy.

There is nothing more responsible for the Chiefs’ 6-6 record than their fourth-quarter implosions. They’ve blown three final-quarter leads in less than two months after spanning nearly two years between them. They cannot seem to put a drive together when offered a chance to tie the game or take the lead late.

But when you analyze the six losses, there’s another correlation you’ll discover.

Penalties. The things they need to, uh, clean up.

The box-score numbers are revealing enough. The Chiefs have been penalized at least 10 times in four separate games this season. Their record in those four games: 0-4.

Look, it’s clear Reid believes the Chiefs didn’t receive a favorable whistle in Dallas, and he’s probably right about that, but this isn’t remotely delving into referee favorability. It’s about the reality.

And the reality is the Chiefs can’t step out of their own way.

They lead the NFL in offensive holding flags this season with 29 — a penalty that has the second-highest effect on offensive expected points added, per a Sports Info Solutions study. (Five of those have been declined.) Their offensive tackles alone have been flagged for 13 holdings. Jawaan Taylor remains the most penalized player in football.

But the total is only part of the story. The impact of those calls is far greater.

The Chiefs convert a first-and-10 into another first down at the second-highest rate in the NFL — 79% of their first downs will eventually produce another first down or a touchdown, per NFLfastR data.

When they get called for holding? That efficiency drops, precipitously. In their six losses, the Chiefs have been flagged for 12 accepted holding calls. They have turned only five of those 12 into eventual first downs, a rate of 41.7%. They are barely even half as productive during a series in which they get called for holding.

Stay with me on this. That leaves seven punts or field goals in those 12 accepted holding calls. In normal circumstances, absent the penalties, they’d punt only twice.

That’s five would-be extra opportunities for Patrick Mahomes, five chances to score three or maybe seven.

Need I remind you each of their six losses have come by one possession and by a combined 25 points?

It has a major impact.

A week ago in Dallas, the Chiefs’ offensive penalties negatively affected their win probability by 16.1%, per NFLfastR data. In totality, their defensive penalties dropped their win probability an additional 30%. They were more adversely affected by penalties than any team in the NFL last week.

In Week 11, when they lost to the Broncos, the Chiefs were more adversely affected by offensive penalties than any team in the NFL.

In Week 5, when they lost to the Jaguars, they were more adversely affected by total penalties than any team in the NFL.

The problem, again, isn’t the expression. The problem is it so perfectly fits.

The margin in the NFL is too thin.

You might be tired of me saying this, but Chiefs move the ball very efficiently — they lead the NFL in yards per drive, rank second in points per drive reach the red zone more frequently than any team in the league, per FTN data.

What they lack, however, is explosive plays. Only 5.6% of their plays gain at least 20 yards, which ranks 15th in the league. That makes it harder for them to overcome big penalties than it used to be.

In 2018, the Chiefs also led the NFL in flags. We didn’t notice. They could pick up 20+ yards without taking a breath.

They don’t possess the same explosiveness. They have to stay efficient.

Their best path to the end zone requires they stay on schedule.

It requires, to borrow a phrase, they play clean.