John Romano: Instead of dancing into December, the Bucs still have some work to do

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Dec 4, 2025

Published in Football

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TAMPA, Fla. — Pardon the intrusion, but where’s the party?

Where is the laughter, the excitement, the anticipation? Why the short tempers and long faces?

Sure, it feels a little snobbish to say it, but this is not the December we had in mind.

The Bucs are potentially a handful of games away from clinching their fifth consecutive NFC South title, and yet this doesn’t seem as joyful as one might think. Injuries have derailed Tampa Bay’s momentum, and the division standings are far closer than once expected.

I mean, who the heck invited the Panthers to this shindig?

The computer models say the Bucs are still big-time favorites to win the South, which only makes me want to kick them in the gigabytes. It’s absolutely true to say the Bucs still control their own destiny. But you know what else is true? The Panthers also control their own destiny.

That’s right. If Carolina wins its final four games, the Panthers are the NFC South champs.

That’s what Carolina’s upset of the Rams on Sunday accomplished. It completely upset the anticipated order of things in the division.

Instead of waltzing toward another division crown while waiting for their best players to mend, the Bucs now have the dreaded sense of looking over their shoulders.

As easy as Tampa Bay’s schedule looks in December, the Bucs had better win at least one of their two remaining games against the Panthers on Dec. 21 or Jan. 4. Vegas seems to think that’s likely to happen. Oddsmakers currently have the Bucs favored to win both games, and I don’t disagree.

But I also don’t think it’s close to being a slam dunk.

In recent seasons — in the Todd Bowles seasons — the Bucs have struggled on the road against Carolina. On their way to a division title in 2022, they got blown out 21-3 by a subpar Panthers team. And when they needed to beat a 2-14 Carolina team to win the division in the season’s final week in 2023, they struggled to a 9-0 win. And last year, it took overtime to beat a Panthers team that finished 5-12.

So, yeah, that might explain the twitch in your eye this morning.

When healthy, the Bucs are a better team than the Panthers. Even when banged-up, the Bucs might be better. But that Carolina victory against the Rams was an eye-opener. Especially coming a week after the Rams crushed the Bucs 34-7. Especially after Carolina’s upset of Green Bay a few weeks earlier.

Perhaps the hem of my pessimism is showing. Tampa Bay has five games remaining against teams that have a combined record of 25-37. Theoretically, the Bucs should win all five games. But one of those opponents — the Dolphins — had a 3-0 record in November. The Bucs were 1-3.

And when you toss in what the Panthers have done recently, that month-long December party we were anticipating is now flush with potential poopers.

Yes, I know, this is common in the NFL. With two weeks remaining in the season in 2024, only three of the eight division titles had been clinched. Heck, the Bucs were one of two division winners that needed a victory in the final week to clinch last year.

So even victorious fan bases usually go through a certain amount of angst in the season’s final weeks. It’s just that this season was supposed to be different for Tampa Bay. After scratching and clawing their way to division titles with a combined 27-24 record the past three seasons, the Bucs were overwhelming favorites in the South this year. The roster was at its most stout since 2021, and the Falcons, Saints and Panthers were all coming off losing seasons.

Starting the season off 5-1 only reinforced the thought that Tampa Bay would not only win another division title but could challenge for one of the top seeds in the NFC.

That’s when the doctors started working overtime and the schedule got increasingly difficult. A two-game lead in the division shrunk to a half-game. The defense, as it has in the past, is struggling against competent quarterbacks. The Bucs are giving up 25.1 points per game, which puts them in the company of the Saints and Cardinals on the NFL stat sheets.

Now, chances are, this is all needless fretting. Tampa Bay’s magic number is five with five games remaining. Even if the Bucs go 3-2 down the stretch — as long as one of those victories were against the Panthers — their chances of winning the division are pretty stout.

Just keep telling yourself that while watching the champagne chill.

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