Greg Cote's Week 13 NFL picks

Weird week, a lot of it fabulous. Our 13-1 straight-up was our best of the season. And we continued our hot hand on outright upset picks, going 3 for 3 last week with bull’s-eyes on Browns winning in Vegas (”Aawwk!”), Cowboys beating Philly, and Falcons’ win in N’awlins. Also had ‘dog Texans with the points over Bills, our only outright loss. Yet despite that we stumbled at 4-9-1 vs. the bet line, with more bad luck on the tightest calls. That included four losses on ATS verdicts decided by one- or a half-point. No grousing. Back on the horse and giddy up! [Note: Our three Thanksgiving Day picks were @Lions (7-4, -2 1/2) over Packers (7-3-1), 27-23; @Cowboys (5-5-1, +3 1/2) over Chiefs (6-5), 30-24; and @Ravens (6-5, -7) over Bengals (3-8), 34-20.]

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— Week 12: 13-1, .929 overall; 4-9-1, .321 against the spread.

— Season: 117-60, .661 overall; 82-93-2, .469 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BEARS (8-3) at EAGLES (8-3)

Line: PHI by 7.

Cote’s pick: PHI 31-27.

TV: 3 p.m. Friday, Prime Video.

Snuck in between the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader and the main slate we get this gem of a little Friday afternoon matinee between teams trying to stake their claim in an NFC seemingly ruled (for now) by the Rams. Reigning champ Eagles fight doubts they’re not as good as last year, while Bears fight doubts they’re that good, period. Let’s see. Week 13’s best games probably were on Thursday, but a duel of 8-3s lends credibility here. Philly coming off upset loss in Dallas and Chicago off four straight wins, yet it’s Bears who must prove themselves. Caleb Williams has CHI’s offense humming, but I see Saquon Barkley getting untracked vs. Bears’ mediocre run D. I’m riding Eagles’ 15-1 run at home, but like Bears close with the points in a bit of a shootout.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

“AAAWWWK!” reminds the Upset Bird. “Our Week 13 UOTW was Cowboys (5-5-1, +3 1/2) at home over Chiefs (6-5), 30-24, in the middle of three Thursday Thanksgiving Day games. Thanksgaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 13:

Our three Thanksgiving Day picks were: @Lions (7-4, -2 1/2) over Packers (7-3-1), 27-23; @Cowboys (5-5-1, +3 1/2) over Chiefs (6-5), 30-24; and @Ravens (6-5, -7) over Bengals (3-8), 34-20.

49ers (8-4, -4 1/2) over @Browns (3-8), 23-13: Niners defense will be a hugely tougher test for Shedeur Sanders than he got in his maiden NFL start last week. But Browns’ stout D will be the same for Brock Purdy coming off a three-pick game. Those factors and cold, cloudy weather will keep the score low, but still like SF to handle a modest point spread.

Jaguars (7-4, -6 1/2) over @Titans (1-10), 20-16: Jax can’t but be overconfident against a downtrodden foe on a 10-game home losing streak. Trap game! Tennessee has won nine of past 11 at home vs. Jags, and division game generally skew tight. Like Titans with the home ‘dog cover.

@Colts (8-3, -4 1/2) over Texans (6-5), 24-20: Houston has won three in a row and four of past five against rival Colts and tempts again here — even with C.J. Stroud (concussion) seeming likely to miss a fourth straight game. Texans’ defense is bona fide. But Indy is a different animal at home, as its eight-game win streak there suggests. Give us Nags to bounce back from that tough loss in K.C., but HOU to keep it inside the betting number.

@Dolphins (4-7, -6) over Saints (2-9), 27-13: Holiday weekend and a holiday feel to this matchup. I mean, how often lately have the Dolphins played a game their fans felt so certain of winning? Been a minute, as they say. This is due to Miami having resurrected itself by winning two in a row and three of past four. Also, because New Orleans stinks. Especially offensively, with a person named “Tyler Shough” at quarterback and RB Alvin Kamara iffy to play. But here’s the scary part. Dolphins are undeserving of any overconfidence, are not good enough to take even this opponent lightly, and could very well lose. Expected rain Sunday makes this pick that much more precarious. But I like Miami, having climbed to the far periphery of “in the hunt” for playoff contention, and coming off a bye. Also like RB De’Von Achane vs. a subpar N’Awlins run stopping. And a Fins defense that’s been better lately should continue that improvement here. Admirably, too, the Dolphins have displayed overall fight in an apparent effort to save coach Mike McDaniel’s job. Not sure recent Saints performances have indicated such fight.

Falcons (4-7, -2 1/2) over @Jets (2-9), 21-17: Don’t trust either of these teams. Wouldn’t get near this matchup on a dare. But I sort of have to pick every game, so give me the better roster on a solid game from Kirk Cousins — even with top WR Drake London (knee) likely out again. NYJ (hosting Miami next week) sees its losing streak vs. NFC teams grow to nine.

@Buccaneers (6-5, -3) over Cardinals (3-8), 26-21: Welcome to Skid Row with both teams on a three-game swoon. Only one is in the playoff hunt, though, so look for some extra fire from Bucs at home. Baker Mayfield was miserable in loss to Rams last week and is fighting a non-throwing shoulder injury, but TB hopes he’ll play. Bucs also could have RB Bucky Irving back for first time since Week 4, a needed jolt.

Rams (9-2, -10) over @Panthers (6-6), 31-13: Matthew Stafford and the Rams look like the best team in the NFL right now. Carolina looks like the fun little overachiever about to get schooled. Panthers have the worst point differential (minus-53) of any .500-or-better team, and L.A. is on a 10-1 run covering spread on the road. If this number seems too big ... it isn’t.

@Seahawks (8-3, -11 1/2) over Vikings (4-7), 28-13: Reeling Vikes are one of NFL’s most disappointing teams, and QB J.J. McCarthy has been putrid. Now he’s iffy with a concussion, putting Minny at risk of a first career start by one Max Brosmer. This could get ugly. Seattle’s defense should swallow Vikings’ struggling offense, and Sam Darnold will enjoy his revenge on the team that gave up on him and might be better off if it hadn’t.

Bills (7-4, -3 1/2) over @Steelers (6-5), 27-20: Josh Allen was sacked eight times (!) by Texans in a Thursday night upset, but Pittsburgh’s defense (even with T.J. Watt) is not Houston’s. Steelers expect to have Aaron Rodgers back from injury, but he and his offense had tailed off even before his absence. So I reject the home dog mystique of Mike Tomlin here and like Buffalo with extra time on the rebound victory.

@Chargers (7-4, -10) over Raiders (2-9), 24-10: Chargers had a bye week to consider their mystifying 35-6 loss in Jacksonville, and now have the perfect prescription remedy waiting in a floundering Las Vegas squad that just dumped offensive chief Chip Kelly. Raiders have lost nine straight division games, Bolts have won past four trips to Sin City, and those streaks go on.

Broncos (9-2, -6 1/2) over @Commanders (3-8), 23-20: Sunday night stage gets a weird one with both teams coming off byes and headed in starkly opposite directions. Denver has surfed big defense to nine straight wins. Colossal disappointment Washington has lost six in a row and continues without injured QB Jayden Daniels and relegated to Marcus Mariota. But a home dog in such dire straits is liable can be dangerous like a cornered animal. I’m hunching Comms show some prime-time fight and keep it close.

@Patriots (10-2, -7 1/2) over Giants (2-10), 27-17: Monday night gets quite the contrast as well with Pats’ nine straight wins and G-Men’s six straight defeats. NFL’s first 10-win team is that on the back of a soft schedule that continues here. Sure, Pats are good. But are they great? Special? Giants are in the basement with the opposite record, but five one-score losses including three in a row suggest NYG is at least competitive. And Biggies could have QB Jaxson Dart back.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon.)