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Omar Kelly: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is playing for his NFL future

Omar Kelly, Miami Herald on

Published in Football

MIAMI — Tua Tagovailoa is having an identity crisis.

Physically he looks like the same guy with longer, braided hair.

His weight has gone up and down the past couple of years, but that happens as we age and have children.

But game wise, ability wise, the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback doesn’t feel like himself.

He isn’t playing football the way he knows how to, and has proven he can during a two-year stretch of his NFL career, one where he led the Dolphins to two playoff berths and earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2023.

Tagovailoa is the first to admit his game is off, and he has been asking himself “what changed” all season?

How does a quarterback who entered 2025 winning 63% of the NFL games he has started begin the 2025 season 2-7, two losses from producing his first losing season in his six years as Miami’s starting quarterback.

Not all of Miami’s struggles are his fault. He led the Dolphins to three potential game-winning touchdown drives, but Miami’s defense, or special teams dropped the ball for the team.

However, there have been three games — Indianapolis, Buffalo and Cleveland — where the turnovers Tagovailoa committed sealed his team’s fate.

He’s had a 100-plus quarterback-rated game in four of Miami’s nine games. But he has had a rating lower than 55 in three of his nine starts.

“On a game-winning drive, [I] can’t throw an interception,” Tagovailoa said, referring to Miami’s final offensive possession of a Week 3 31-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the team the Dolphins host Sunday. “[I] just got to find a way to finish better and place our team in a better position than that when we’re able to go down and potentially tie the game up.”

Tagovailoa is having a season that’s on par with what he did before Mike McDaniel arrived, and helped the former University of Alabama standout clean up his game.

He’s completing 67.9% of his passes, which is just under his career average of 68.1 completion percentage. He’s ranked 14th in completion percentage.

He’s averaging 197.7 passing yards per game, which is under his 236.8 yards per-game average.

He has been sacked 18 times in nine games, and has his second-highest sacks per passing attempt rate (6.23), which falls just short of the (6.45) he posted as a rookie in his nine starts. Only nine quarterbacks have been sacked more than Tagovailoa this season.

His touchdown rate is also the second highest it’s been in his career, delivering a touchdown pass every 5.5 attempts, which is slightly higher than his career average of 5.0.

Tagovailoa also has the second-lowest passer rating of his career (87.6), which edges out the 87.1 he posted as a rookie starter. It’s a significant drop-off from the 100-plus passer rating he has produced the past three seasons, and the 96.7 he’s averaged in his 71 starts.

So what’s missing?

It’s easy to excuse the decline to the absence of All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill, but Tagovailoa’s game began falling off last season.

Are defenses catching up to his style of play? Is that what has led to his interceptions, which usually come in bunches?

 

More importantly, is Tagovailoa pressing?

Tagovailoa admits he’s less mobile than he was earlier in his career, and the Dolphins have hammered it in his head to not put himself at risk of injury, so he scrambles out the pocket less, which has decreased his production on improvisation from broken plays.

And keep in mind, with James Daniel and Austin Jackson sidelined since the season opener, the entire right side of Miami’s offensive line has been filled with backups. And it doesn’t help that Jonah Savaiinaea has been struggling all season as a rookie starter at left guard.

The instability of Miami’s offensive line could potentially be forcing Tagovailoa to rush his throws because he feels uncomfortable, insecure in the pocket. But that’s an issue most NFL quarterbacks, especially the good ones, have to overcome from time to time.

“One thing about being a franchise quarterback in the National Football League is your expectations for yourself are very high, and you can feel as though your job is to do even more than what your job is,” McDaniel said. “There’s 11 players on the field playing every play, and they need him to help make them the best players they can be. That’s the power of the quarterback. And focusing on how he addresses his teammates, how he gets the team in and out of the huddle, how convicted he is, those things are the bedrock of his game, and he [shouldn’t] have to do more than that.

“I think it’s important, when you’re not getting results as a team, to make sure individuals don’t try to be Captain America or Superman.”

McDaniel is basically warning Tagovailoa to avoid pressing, and putting the weight of this team’s struggles on his shoulders.

“All the decisions you have to make, it has to be from a clear mind of expectation of what your job is,” McDaniel added.

From Tagovailoa’s perspective, his job is to take care of the football (limit interceptions and fumbles), hit his weaponry in stride and to score touchdown when the offense is inside the red zone.

All that’s easier to say than do.

“I think there’s a lot of things that we can look at when we’re talking about improvement for all of us, but I think that first starts with me,” said Tagovailoa, who owns a 40-31 record as the Dolphins starter.

In what’s left of the 2025, Tagovailoa says his focus is to improve his footwork, speed up his decision-making process and develop more chemistry with the weaponry he’s working with in life without Hill, and tight end Darren Waller, who must sit out at least another two games because of his pectoral injury.

“[I want to get back to] the way I’ve played in years past, the conviction that I’ve wanted to play with this year. It helps with the trickle-down effect with [Jaylen] Waddle and then all the other guys.”

Tagovailoa is entering the final year of the guaranteed portion of his contract next season, which means Miami’s decision-makers have some tough choices to make, and might base it on how Tagovailoa plays the remaining eight games.

He’ll make $55 million in base salary, option bonuses and roster bonuses in 2025. And on March 3, $3 million of his $36 million in salary and bonuses are guaranteed. If Miami cuts Tagovailoa before June 1, he becomes a $99 million cap hit, and that figure would be split in two if he’s cut after.

In 2027, if the Dolphins decide to release Tagovailoa, who is under contract for $37 million, the franchise will clear $40 million in cap space for that season. That decision must be made before March 15 of 2027 because that’s the date his $5 million roster bonus is due, and $17 million of his base salary becomes guaranteed.

If he’d traded before June 1 in 2026 the Dolphins would clear $11.2 million in cap space, but Miami would carry a dead cap figure of $42.5 million. If he’s traded after June 1 the Dolphins would clear $43 million in cap space, and carry an initial dead cap hit of $13.4 million.

Most of these decisions become easier if Tagovailoa remains the previous form, becoming an efficient quarterback again. But that journey starts with Tagovailoa gaining confidence in his game with the offensive line, and weaponry in his arsenal.


©2025 Miami Herald. Visit miamiherald.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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