Greg Cote's Week 9 NFL picks

Momentum from our best week of the season did not carry over into last week, alas, as we managed a meh 8-5 straight-up and 6-7 vs. the Evil Betting Line. Misfired on all three of our outright upset picks. Had Dolphins-with-points at Atlanta, at least. For the year we’re well off last year’s pace both overall and ATS but still rather astonishingly full of confidence. Now let’s start proving that justified. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Ravens (2-5, -7 1/2) over @Dolphins (2-6), 33-27.]

— Week 8: 8-5, .615 overall; 6-7, .462 against the spread.

— Season: 74-46, .617 overall; 58-62, .483 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 9 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (5-3) at BILLS (5-2)

Line: KC by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 28-24.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “Buffaloaawwk!” We have seen this movie before in a rivalry that is all-but-mandated by law to be the Game of the Week. Bills win in the regular season, then Chiefs school ‘em in the playoffs. Now here comes the sequel! Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 vs. Bills in postseason. Josh Allen is 4-1 vs. Chiefs in the regular year. So it goes, and watch it play out again. K.C. rides a three-game win streak sparked by Rashee Rice’s return, and the Super Bowl talk is amplifying. Buffs have stumbled after a 4-0 start and struggle to maintain AFC East supremacy over the Patriots. Would say Bills have the want/need edge here, except Chiefs don’t lead their division, either. K.C. may get its ground game cranking vs. a Buffs run-D that was bad even before star DT Ed Oliver went out injured. But still like Allen finding a way at home. Chiefs on a 1-4 skid on the road, and Buffs on a 13-1 roll in western New York. K-City also on a short week after playing last Monday night. “Bills own the regular season; not so much the playaawwks,” notes U-Bird. “Which is just fine with Patrick Mahaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 9:

Thursday night pick was @Ravens (2-5, -7 1/2) over Dolphins (2-6), 33-27.

Bears (4-3, -2 1/2) over @Bengals (3-5), 27-24: Two unreliable teams that always seem a risky bet, and make this one of week’s toughest calls. But Chicago should grind up a bad Cincy defense that is giving up the most rushing yards in NFL. Count on a pick or two from Joe Flacco as well, if he plays. Shoulder sprain has him legit-iffy, with previously benched Jake Browning on call.

@Lions (5-2, -8 1/2) over Vikings (3-4), 31-16: Motown on a 5-0 run in division rivalry and is 3-0 at home this year. Minny has lost two straight as it turns to J.J. McCarthy at QB coming off a high ankle sprain. Vikes are headed south and Lions had a bye week to cook up a blowout. McCarthy will be lucky if his kneecaps aren’t bitten off.

@Packers (5-1-1, -13 1/2) over Panthers (4-4), 30-13: Carolina was supposed to be awful but has worked its way up to erratically decent. But Bryce Young may not return from a high ankle sprain and backup Andy Dalton is iffy with a thumb injury — a bad QB situation to bring to Lambeau Field. Packers have won three straight and will grow that mo’ as they prove, in their 1923 throwback uniforms, that you can play well even while looking ridiculous.

Chargers (5-3, -9 1/2) over @Titans (1-7), 27-3: Tennessee has lost three straight, is 0-3 at home and certifiably is the worst all-round team in the league. Cam Ward might be NFL-good someday, but right now he’s paying some serious rookie dues. Bolts will own the clock against a weak run D and own scoreboard all day.

@Patriots (6-2, -4 1/2) over Falcons (3-4), 24-17: New England’s quiet-good defense and a fast-emerging star QB in Drake Maye has fashioned a five-game win streak as Buffalo scrambles to keep its grip as AFC East kingpin. Pats also have won seven straight vs. Atlanta. Might like Falcons with points if QB Michael Penix and WR Drake London weren’t both day-to-day questionable and a crapshoot to play.

49ers (5-3, -2 1/2) over @Giants (2-6), 27-21: Cannot overemphasize how big a loss it is for NYG, already without WR Malik Nabers, now losing RB Cam Skattebo for the season to a gruesome ankle injury. Skattebo was a big part of Jaxson Dart’s magic. On the other side San Fran hopes to have QB Brock Purdy back after four games’ absence to face a beatable Giants secondary. See a Niners’ bounceback from last week’s subpar performance vs. Houston.

Colts (7-1, -3 1/2) @Steelers (4-3), 27-24: Indy has won four games in a row and Pitt has lost a pair in a row, but there’s something tempting about Mike Tomlin getting points at home. An outright upset would not shock in what is our GOTW first alternate. Still, Colts‘ attack is balanced and explosive, with Jonathan Taylor gaining steam in MVP chatter, and Steelers’ defense has been struggling.

Broncos (6-2, +1 1/2) over @Texans (3-4), 19-17: Upset! (”Aawwk!”) Denver’s defense leads NFL in sacks — by a lot. Houston’s O-line has issues. That’s the matchup that tilts this pick for me. Broncos will really miss injured star CB Patrick Surtain; still, give visitors the narrow edge in what figures as a tight, points-shy affair.

Jaguars (4-3, -2 1/2) over @Raiders (2-5), 23-20: Jax is bad on road; Vegas is bad at home. Somethin’ gotta give. I see Jags rebound from two straight losses. J’ville’s defense is sneaky solid and second in league in takeaways, and Vegas QB Geno Smith makes more turnovers than a bakery. Raiders plan to have TE Brock Bowers back but could be missing sackman Maxx Crosby.

@Rams (5-2, -14 1/2) over Saints (1-7), 41-13: L.A.’s star WR Puka Nacua is iffy to return from injury, but Rams, coming off a bye, should be in rout-mode even without him against this opponent. Saints have benched QB Spencer Rattler and are going with 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough. Why!? Shough has not impressed off the bench.

Seahawks (5-3, -2 1/2) over @Commanders (3-5), 24-20: This looked like a better Sunday night matchup before Commanders fell into a three-game skid, but could still be a good one if home team has QB Jayden Daniels back as it hopes. But Seattle is off a bye and Washington played last Monday — a big rest/prep edge for Hawks. Seattle also has won nine straight road games and packs a defense that should be the difference here.

@Cowboys (3-4-1, -2 1/2) over Cardinals (2-5, +2 1/2), 31-27: Good luck to the Monday night crew selling this matchup: Uninteresting Cardinals at the ghost of America’s Team. Could be a shootout, at least, as Dak Prescott is tasked each week with trying to outscore his own porous defense. Give Zona off a bye week a shot if they have QB Kyler Murray back as hoped. Cards are a nemesis on a 7-1 run in series including three straight W’s at Dallas. But Cacti won’t keep pace with Boys’ offense this time.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— Browns (2-6, next @Jets): Cleveland lost big to New England last week but faces beatable Jets next. Which reminds: Fight for overall No. 1 draft pick is a mad scrum as nine teams tread mud at one or two wins.

— Buccaneers (6-2, next vs. Patriots): Tampa easily handled New Orleans last week and owns comfy lead in NFC South, but Baker Mayfield & Co. have challenge on deck in Drake Maye and the surging Pats.

— Eagles (6-2, next @Packers): Reigning champ Birds dispatched Giants last week and lead NFC East in a runaway. But trip to Lambeau next followed by visit from Lions will be double-barreled test.

— Jets (1-7, next vs. Browns); NYJ rallied for a 39-38 thriller over Bengals for first win last week and can spend the well-earned rest celebrating. A parade down Broadway’s Canyon of Heroes, perhaps?