NFL DFS Week 5 optimal lineup

I’ve given my wife Kendra the nickname of “Captain Contrarian.”

Some of her hotter takes include the use of onions in all forms of cooking should be outlawed, room temperature should be over 80 degrees and “Teen Witch” is a better movie than “The Godfather.”

Contrarians like my wife can be useful because they are less susceptible to conforming. Whether they are right or wrong is almost beside the point. Contrarians make the world a smarter place simply by serving up stress tests for old ideas.

Although, to be clear, my wife is assuredly wrong about onions, the proper comfort setting for a room and “The Godfather.”

Conventional wisdom states it’s best to use the chalk in cash games or head-to-head contests, and be contrarian in tournaments, especially those the size of DraftKings' Milly Maker, but that’s an oversimplification.

A good contrarian play is a combination of underpriced, under-owned, and has an opportunity advantage over similarly priced options. When the profiles are similar, the lesser owned option is preferred.

A bad contrarian play is a player whose value is solely based on low projected ownership.

Good chalk has an overwhelming opportunity advantage, and a dominant profile compared to similarly priced options.

Bad chalk has several paths to failure that aren’t being priced into the ownership.

Going completely contrarian with your lineups is asking for too many things to go right, but just following the herd with all chalk won’t differentiate enough from the field, and rarely creates a ceiling high enough to take down a contest with a large number of entrants.

The key is pairing good contrarian plays with good chalk, balanced by correlation.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $80 this season, so I’m in the black $15 with an average score of 136.19 points through four weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 95.52

— Week 2: 124.90

— Week 3: 181.44

— Week 4: 142.88

Week 5 Lineup

— QB: Justin Fields, Jets ($5,600)

The Cowboys-Jets is my favorite game environment of the week, and Fields continues to be priced like we’re playing real football and not fantasy, which will lead to increased ownership. Dallas’ porous defense has allowed every quarterback it has faced this season to score at least 24.3 DraftKings points against them.

— RB: De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($7,300)

Achane will likely be the chalkiest of chalk this week with Tyreek Hill done for the season. He is one of three running backs since 1970 to produce at least 15 rushing TDs and 10 receiving TDs in his first 32 games. The other two were Chuck Foreman and Kareem Hunt.

— RB: Breece Hall, Jets ($5,600)

With Braelon Allen out with a sprained MCL, Hall’s usage should stabilize and he’ll likely get most of Allen’s red zone snaps. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

— WR: Nico Collins, Texans ($6,800)

Collins is the overall WR22 in PPR formats through four weeks, but he’s set up to smash against a depleted defense already allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Ravens won’t have defensive tackles Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) and Broderick Washington Jr. (ankle), cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and Marlon Humphrey (calf), plus All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith (hamstring). All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton also missed practice on Friday.

— WR: George Pickens, Cowboys ($6,600)

Pickens saw a nearly 30% target share against the Packers last week without CeeDee Lamb in the lineup. What makes the matchup with the Jets so appealing is that both team’s offenses are highly concentrated on a few players, and both teams are easily stacked.

— WR: Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,100)

The Jets don’t throw the ball often, but when they do, it’s usually going to Wilson. He leads the team in target share (36.5%), air yards share (47.6%) and yards per route run (2.66), and the Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers through four weeks.

— TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions ($4,200)

Detroit has a 30-point implied total this week, highest on the slate, and the Bengals defense has been terrible going all the way back to last season. So it’s not really about if the Lions will score a lot of points this week, but how they will score. LaPorta is due, and has a team-high 90.9% red-zone snap rate.

— FLEX: David Montgomery, Lions ($5,200)

Montgomery is the overall RB20 in PPR formats through four weeks. The Cincinnati native is playing at home in front of friends and family for the first time in his career. According to FantasyPros, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Bengals are allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

— DST: Houston Texans ($2,400)

This is a ridiculously low price point for a genuinely good defense, considering Lamar Jackson will not play, and be replaced by Cooper Rush.