Matt Calkins: Why Maryland's thrilling win is bad for the NCAA Tournament's future

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Mar 24, 2025

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SEATTLE — What Maryland provided on Sunday:

— The only game-winning buzzer-beater of this year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, brought to you by one Derik Queen in a 72-71 win over Colorado State.

— An all-time thrill to the crowd at Climate Pledge Arena, which continues to prove itself as a sublime host for basketball at all levels.

— A page for the tournament history books, as Queen's game-winner will be a part of montages for years to come regardless of how the fourth-seeded Terps fare.

What Maryland took away Sunday:

— The only Cinderella left.

I can't help but think that the majority of fans at Climate Pledge Arena had mixed thoughts about the heroics they witnessed in that second-round game. Just a few seconds before Queen banked in an 8-foot running fadeaway to send the Terrapins to the win, senior Jalen Lake swished a 3-pointer to put 12th-seeded Colorado State up 71-70.

It appeared the Rams were going to be the only mid-major team — and also the only team seeded below a 10 — to make it to this year's Sweet 16. Instead, Queen made sure that all 16 of this year's survivors came from major conferences — a first since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

In short: This year's Dance has gone chalk, the antidote to the magic the NCAA Tournament has come to embody. The question is — should we start getting used to this?

Anybody paying attention knows that NIL and the transfer portal have forever changed the landscape of college sports, particularly the ones with major dollar signs involved. Scarce are the smaller programs that repeatedly reach the NCAA Tournament due to years of congruence, as bidding wars tend to split them up.

Even after his team's win Sunday, Maryland coach Kevin Willard noted how players' nerves are accentuated this time of year because of what it can mean for their bank accounts.

"The game has changed. They play well, and next thing you know, their NIL dollars go up," Willard said. "The transfer portal opens up, I think, that opens tomorrow. Brilliant move by the NCAA."

It is kind of sad for any fan of a smaller program who grows attached to a young, breakout player. Assuming he doesn't go pro, there's a good chance he'll move on to a bigger collegiate stage. This may also prove sad for NCAA Tournament viewers keen on seeing 12-seeds and lower wreak havoc on brackets. This year, the only double-digit seed remaining on the men's side is 10th-seeded Arkansas, which hails from the ever-powerful SEC.

Hey, sometimes tourneys are simply upset-challenged. But no mid-majors moving on? That's not good for business if it becomes a regular occurrence. Will it?

I asked Colorado State coach Niko Medved.

Do you feel like with the shift in the college sports landscape, it's going to be harder and harder for the lower seeds to make runs? Or is it just one of those years?

"If I'm being honest, it's probably a little bit of both. Sometimes years happen the way that they are and all that stuff like that. But, yeah, it's getting more difficult," Medved said. "I think what's changed in college basketball is there's not as many old mid-major teams as there used to be all the time. Where you got guys who played together for two, three, four years at the mid-major level. There's not as much of that. Because older guys who played together really are pretty good. So I think there's some of that, but sometimes it's just the way the year goes, you know what I mean, people win. And so again I think it's hard to generalize, but the honest answer is it's probably a little bit of both."

I would agree. Look at a team such as Drake, whose roster was heavily composed of Division II transfers, which made a run to the second round as an 11-seed. Few would have thought the Bulldogs were capable of such a feat when the season began. And though NIL is new, it's not brand-new. Last year's tournament featured 13th-seeded Yale and 14th-seeded Oakland winning in the first round. Surprises can still happen.

But it's fair to wonder if the disparities between the major conferences and mid-majors this year is a harbinger of what's to come. NIL and the transfer portal have changed the game as we know it. Evidence is lacking whether that change is for the better.

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