It's beginning to look a lot like... a traditional midterm election

ANALYSIS — The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political savant, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm.

There’s a perception that normal rules don’t apply to Trump, who overperformed the polls and got elected twice with baggage that would end most political careers. But that’s not really true, particularly when he’s not on the ballot.

Even though Trump was the surprise winner in 2016, it’s been long enough to forget that 2018 was a normal midterm election. His job approval rating sunk to 44 percent over the course of his first two years in office, and Republicans got thumped, losing more than 40 House seats.

That’s what happens to parties when they have an unpopular president in the White House. Yes, the GOP gained two Senate seats in 2018, but that was because of a favorable map and Democrats defending a disproportionate number of seats that cycle.

Now, almost a year into Trump’s second term, it looks like we’re on the same course.

The president’s job approval rating is slightly worse (about 41%, according to Nate Silver’s national average), and this year’s election results have been nothing but good news for Democrats.

Whether it’s Democrats’ winning margins in the New Jersey, Virginia and California general elections last month or their losing margins in two House special elections in Florida this spring and Tennessee’s 7th District on Tuesday, the trend has been clear: Democrats are overperforming by double digits compared with the 2024 presidential results. The victors were not surprising. It’s the margins that mattered.

When recent outcomes match up with historical trends, it’s up to the other party to demonstrate how this cycle is going to be an aberration.

Speaker Mike Johnson clearly knows the history. He reportedly told House Republicans on Tuesday morning that the GOP would “defy history” next year by winning more seats and not losing the majority, according to Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman.

History is clear. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles was five (1986) and four (1962). House Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip the chamber next year.

Some Republicans are hanging their hat on the two midterm outliers.

In 2002, Republicans gained eight House seats and two Senate seats. According to two veteran GOP consultants, it was because the party had “strong candidates, clear messages, and we played offense.” But that ignores the fact that Gallup had President George W. Bush’s job approval rating at 68% when the midterms took place. That was down from 90% about a year earlier in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. And it’s nearly double where Gallup has Trump’s rating now (36%). So it’s difficult to see that scenario replaying itself in 2026.

On Tuesday evening, another veteran Republican consultant mentioned 1998, when Democrats gained five House seats during President Bill Clinton’s second term. There was a broad perception back then that Speaker Newt Gingrich and his GOP majority went too far in investigating Clinton, leading Republicans today to draw comparisons with Democrats’ desire to investigate Trump.

But that scenario doesn’t fit neatly either. Democrats aren’t in the majority now and don’t have any power to impeach or go too far in investigating the president. And, maybe more importantly, Clinton maintained a 66% job approval rating during the 1998 midterms, which helped Democrats defy historical midterm trends.

11 months to go

So what is the silver lining for the GOP, if any?

Republicans will point to a divided Democratic Party, a damaged Democratic brand and upcoming competitive primaries.

But none of those things have been impediments to Democrats’ overperformances up to this point. We know from the Republican successes of 2010 and 2014 that a leaderless, messageless and divided party can still win general elections. The tea party was at war with the GOP establishment, and yet Republicans gained 63 House seats in President Barack Obama’s first midterm and 14 in his second.

If Republicans can make the 2026 election a referendum on the Democratic Party, then they have a chance to hold their majorities. But the election is more likely to be a referendum on the current direction of the country, the state of the economy, the president and the party in power. That’s the default setting for midterm elections.

Looking forward, Republicans are placing a lot of stock in the quality of their candidates. But some of their battle-tested incumbents aren’t running again (Arizona’s David Schweikert and Nebraska’s Don Bacon) or have won tough races but lost during Trump’s first midterm (California’s David Valadao).

And there are emerging cracks within the GOP Caucus, from Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s imminent departure to a potentially messy primary for Schweikert’s seat to bipartisan disagreement with Trump over the release of the Epstein files. Even in Tennessee’s 7th District, some Republicans griped that Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps was not the first choice of local grassroots conservatives and was dragged over the finish line in the primary by a late Trump endorsement. They also referred to him as “Tennessee’s Fauci,” citing his role as a strategic planner in the state’s COVID-19 response. Republicans can’t afford any intraparty divisions or turnout apathy next year.

Halfway through the cycle, one of the most important midterm questions remains: Can Republicans turn out the Trump coalition when he’s not on the ballot? The results so far are not good for the GOP. They have almost a year to try and solve the problem and have a particularly engaged president, who is dedicated to holding the majority to pass his agenda and avoid scrutiny and oversight. But Republicans have work to do.

The best news for Republicans is that the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away. There’s still time for the economy and Trump’s standing to improve, even though it’s unlikely to change dramatically for the better.

Mid-decade redistricting, including two important Supreme Court decisions, will factor in which party wins the House majority. But at this point, even under the best-case scenario, a net Republican advantage through redistricting wouldn’t be enough to completely insulate the GOP majority in the current political climate.

If we get to next fall and Republicans are spending millions of dollars defending districts like Tennessee’s 7th, that would mean the dam has broken and Democrats are riding a political wave.

But it’s important to remember that Democrats don’t need a wave election to win the majority in 2026.

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