The Philippines began voting on Monday in midterm elections that could decide the fate of impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, whose feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. comes as the Southeast Asian nation grapples with both the global trade war and growing tensions with China.

Over 18,000 national and local positions are up for grabs, though the spotlight is on the Senate race, where the 12 winners — half of the 24-seat chamber — will be jurors in Duterte’s impeachment trial, set for July when the new Congress convenes. Markets are closed for the voting holiday.

The trial’s outcome may reshape the political landscape at a time when the strategically located archipelago is at the frontline of U.S. efforts to deter China’s assertiveness in the region. Duterte, whose father oversaw a pro-Beijing foreign policy stance during his 2016-2022 presidency, denies accusations of plotting to assassinate Marcos and misusing public funds which led to her impeachment.

“These midterm elections can be interpreted to some degree as a proxy battle between Duterte and Marcos as the two families vie for control at the top of Philippine politics,” said Dean Dulay, assistant professor of political science at Singapore Management University.

The vice president, daughter of detained former President Rodrigo Duterte, is among the top contenders for the 2028 presidential election, based on surveys conducted by pollsters. But she may be ousted and barred from holding public office if at least two-thirds of the Senate vote to convict her, pushing her out of contention to succeed Marcos when his single, six-year term ends in 2028.

“We see the upcoming midterm elections to be quite pivotal and will shape the political landscape for the next decade,” Maybank Securities analysts, including Kervin Sisayan, said in a note on May 7.

Marcos and Duterte have endorsed competing Senate tickets in months-long campaign rallies across the country.

“There is still much that needs to be done,” Marcos said during his slate’s rally in the capital Friday. “We have united the best Senate candidates to continue our progress, to continue our development.”

Sara Duterte has maintained relentless criticism of Marcos, with whom she ran on a joint ticket in the 2022 presidential election. At her own rally Thursday, she tried to convince supporters to pick her so-called “DuterTEN” Senate slate.

“What we are witnessing is a systematic demolition job against political opponents that once dared to put the country first,” she said. “Again, Filipinos deserve better.”

Her father, ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, is running to be mayor of Davao even as he languishes in the Netherlands, awaiting trial by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity during his deadly war on drugs. His youngest son and incumbent Davao mayor, Sebastian, is running to be his father’s deputy, while his eldest son, Paolo, is seeking to keep his congressional seat.

Should he win, the former leader can be proclaimed as mayor, in absentia, but the government will need to decide whether the winning vice mayor takes over, according to Commission on Elections Chairman George Garcia.

A strong showing is important for Marcos, who has overseen a dramatic shift in the Philippines’ foreign policy. He has deepened a military alliance with the U.S. and confronted Beijing over its expansive South China Sea claims, which led to clashes between Philippine and Chinese ships. In contrast, Rodrigo Duterte had warm ties with Beijing during his rule and was critical of Washington.

Around 68.4 million people are eligible to vote. Voting runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, but the election agency said persons with disability, pregnant women and those aged 60 years old and above can cast their ballot from 5 a.m.

The winning senators — picked via a nationwide vote — may emerge within hours after voting ends, although it may take days for the poll body to proclaim the victors.

Food security and job issues are also on top of voters’ minds. The nation of more than 7,000 islands — a global call center hub that’s also reliant on $38 billion worth of remittances from millions of citizens working overseas — last week reported its economy grew 5.4% in the first quarter. While that’s faster than many countries in the region, it missed analyst estimates amid U.S. tariff-fueled global uncertainties.

Ahead of the voting, there has been suspicion that Beijing is trying to influence the elections. Philippine authorities last month arrested a Chinese national with a suspected spy device near the election commission’s headquarters in Manila, amid a crackdown on alleged Chinese espionage operations targeting the military and Marcos’ office.

China has denied allegations of election meddling and espionage.

The rival campaigns have underscored the end of what was once an election-winning Marcos-Duterte alliance. The break-up occurred after Marcos allies proposed to change the constitution, which the Dutertes saw as a strategy to keep Marcos — the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos — in office.

Relations reached a low point when Marcos allowed Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and transfer to the International Criminal Court in March.

Senate candidates backed by the president have dominated pre-election surveys. But two politicians originally supported by Marcos — including his sister Imee Marcos — publicly sought the endorsement of Duterte, who remains popular despite her impeachment.

Even if many Marcos-endorsed candidates end up securing Senate seats, lawmakers may shift alliances with an eye on the 2028 presidential race.

“The makeup of the Senate will really determine whether or not the impeachment will be successful,” said Leo Camacho, a constitutional expert and lecturer at the Ateneo School of Law in Manila. “Even before the new senators are sworn in, it will be the first order of business.”

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(With assistance from Philip J. Heijmans.)

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