More than half of Michiganians think the state is on the right track, even as fears mount over an economic downturn that threatens to especially bruise the region's critical auto industry, according to a statewide new poll commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

The poll of 600 registered Michigan voters conducted from Sept. 10-14 surveyed respondents on a series of economic and political questions, revealing concerns about price increases, the impact of President Donald Trump's ongoing trade wars and a looming recession.

“Michigan voters are sending up clear red flags in how they view the current economy,” said pollster Richard Czuba, president of the Glengariff Group. “The vast majority of Michiganders say they are paying more for groceries, utilities, and insurance. They believe tariffs are increasing their costs, hurting the state’s auto industry, and that placing tariffs on Canada hurts Michigan.

"And all of that is resulting in a decline in the number of good jobs Michiganders think are available."

Changes in sentiment from past polling by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group tracked along Democratic and Republican partisan lines, though some of the worries transcended political affiliation.

"It is not all doom and gloom," said Sandy K. Baruah, president and CEO of the Detroit Regional Chamber. He pointed to the 51.5% of respondents who said the Great Lakes State was on the right track.

That represents a small decline from about 53% measured in a similar September 2024 poll, though the net positive margin on the question improved to plus-17.8 from plus-13.4. About 34% of voters surveyed said the state was on the wrong track, an improvement from last September's roughly 40%. Nearly 84% of registered voters surveyed in the poll were contacted by telephone operators on their cellphones.

Voters who identify as Democrats had a less rosy but still-positive outlook compared to last year, while Republican-supporting respondents had an improved but still-negative view of the state's direction. Those changes were consistent with a growing trend of partisan affiliation and presidential politics having an outsized impact on how Americans feel about the economy.

"It used to be how you viewed the economy is how you viewed the party in power. That is now reversing in all of our numbers," Czuba said during a briefing with reporters. "We're increasingly seeing that how you view the party in power is how you view the economy."

The veteran Michigan pollster added: "I want to stress that last year, we were coming out of a period where the vast majority of voters thought that the economy was not in good shape, and we're not seeing improvement. In fact, we're seeing signs of even further decline. In general, the optimism we're seeing in the economy is coming from the Republican side, and it's very clearly tied to politics."

Michigan Republicans' right-track assessments, Czuba said, have ticked up based on what is happening in Washington, D.C., whereas Democrats' positive sentiments have held up because they have tended to make judgments based on developments out of Lansing and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration.

Beyond assessing how Michiganians feel about the overall direction of the state, more targeted questions in the poll about Michigan's economy revealed a greater level of pocketbook concern from voters.

Michiganians were almost evenly split — 42.4% to 42.8% — on whether the state economy was on the right or wrong track, though the share of respondents expecting a recession in the next year has nearly doubled since September 2024 to 38.5% from 20.5% a year ago in previous statewide polling conducted by the Glengariff Group.

Concern grew from Democrats and political independents, while Republicans' recession expectations eased, according to the polling data. Czuba highlighted the movement among independents from about 27% a year ago to 42% now.

"The reason I point out that independent number is independents make the decisions in Michigan," the pollster said, alluding to Michigan's status as an electoral battleground state.

Baruah, meanwhile, expressed worry beyond the political breakdowns in the polling data.

"Voter concerns regarding the economy and their own financial condition are growing. That is clear," he said. "Secondly, it's clear to us at the chamber that certain (federal) policies ... such as tariffs, are a prime driver for this trend of the increased concern about economic situations."

Voters who expected a recession were asked why, with about 49% blaming inflation and costs, 17% citing a reduction in jobs and 13% citing tariffs.

Nearly three-quarters of Michigan voters said they were doing better (about 17%) or the same (56%) economically as they were a year ago, which was similar to the Detroit chamber and Glengariff Group's past few polls.

Fears of worsening inflation stayed high at approximately 43%, and more respondents said the economy was weakening — as opposed to growing — by a margin of 59% to 38%.

Just more than three-quarters (75.8%) said they are spending more on groceries than last year, and at least a plurality noted price increases in other common cost areas like utilities (about 68%), home/car insurance (60%) and gas (48%).

On groceries, Czuba noted that a majority of every demographic group polled — spanning political affiliation, job type and age — said they were paying more than a year ago.

Trump approval, tariffs

The overall balance of support for Republican President Donald Trump, who won Michigan last year by about 1.4 percentage points or 80,100 votes, was negative some 10 months after his electoral victory. Voters disapproved of him by a margin of 45.3%-48.4%, a minus-3.1 approval rating.

Backing for tariffs — the president's signature economic policy tool — was worse, though more specific questions showed complicated voter sentiment on the topic.

Tariffs are taxes on foreign goods paid directly by importers upon passage through U.S. customs, and Trump has levied the taxes both for particular products, like motor vehicles, and broadly for all goods from select countries. The United States' effective tariff rate — measured as tariff revenue divided by the value of all imports — was 17.4% in mid-September, per the Yale Budget Lab. Over the course of a whole year, that would be the highest since 1934.

Some 72% of respondents said tariffs caused an increase in how much they pay for goods. That number was down from the roughly 79% measured by a similar Glengariff poll in May 2025.

About 24% of individuals in the new poll said they have experienced no impact on prices from tariffs, 1% said they are paying less and 4% said they didn't know. Among individuals who approved of Trump's performance, more than half (51%) said they are paying more for things.

Acknowledgment of tariffs causing price hikes, notably, did not necessarily translate to opposition, though "strong support" for them is waning.

About 51% of respondents opposed Trump's tariffs, while about 41% supported them. In May 2025, voters opposed the levies by a similar margin of roughly 43%-51%. While opposition has remained consistent, strong support for the Trump tariffs has dropped from 30.3% to 23.4%. That represents a drop of 6.9 percentage points.

Breaking down tariff sentiments further, Czuba's group noted that "perhaps one of the starkest differences" came based on the type of job a respondent held. Blue-collar workers supported the tariffs by a margin of about 57%-34%. No other group — including white collar, pink collar and retirees — reached even 44% support.

The support for tariffs from blue-collar workers is likely indicative of a long-held position from labor unions like the United Auto Workers and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters that import taxes and the rollback of free trade agreements would restore U.S. and Michigan-based manufacturing jobs.

The Detroit-based union celebrated Trump's latest tariff announcement — 25% duties on heavy trucks — in a statement on Monday.

"For decades, heavy truck makers have rushed to kill good blue-collar jobs from Allentown, Pennsylvania, to Gastonia, North Carolina, in order to pay poverty wages abroad while Wall Street makes a killing. That ends Nov. 1,” UAW President Shawn Fain said.

He continued: “Our members lobbied and mobilized to save these communities and made their voices heard in Washington, D.C. We have pushed for action like this for decades, and we congratulate President Trump for delivering for heavy truck workers everywhere. Let’s keep going and rewrite our broken trade rules.”

At least a plurality of Michiganians, however, said Trump's tariffs would hurt the state's auto industry (about 60%) and be bad for the state economy overall (48%). In fact, even people close to the auto sector overwhelmingly said the tariffs would be harmful to that industry.

In Michigan households where a family member is employed in the auto industry, 66% said tariffs are hurting their industry, while 19% said the duties on imports are helping.

Those households also said by a margin of roughly 4%-59% that they expect tariffs to cause a decrease in annual profit-sharing checks from the Detroit Three automakers.

Czuba cautioned against making assumptions about how blue-collar workers and automotive households view the impact of Trump's tariff policies.

"I think we need to be careful when we look at those auto industry households that we don't just jump to the assumption that they're blue-collar," he said. "They are a real mix of households of white-collar, blue-collar (and) pink-collar."

"Also, blue-collar... covers a whole range of industries in this state, a whole range of different types of workers. And I think what we're seeing is that if you are tied to the auto industry, specifically, you are saying this is hurting the auto industry," Czuba added. "If you're tied to other blue-collar industries, and a lot of them are out-state that are not auto related, (there is) much more support for the tariffs amongst those voters."

Households with someone employed in the auto industry were also more concerned about that person losing their current job (about 31%) than all other workers surveyed (13%).

Czuba noted that both of those figures are still well below half, but voters are expressing concern about a weakening job market in other ways.

He noted that approximately 52% of respondents believe good-paying jobs are available for anyone who wants to work, marking a decline from 60% in April and 66% in January. Additionally, among voters who know someone looking for work, 78% said that person is having a hard time finding a job, according to the poll results.

Artificial intelligence, other questions

The wide-ranging poll also asked voters about their views and usage of artificial intelligence, Michigan's trade relationship with Canada and interest in an independent candidate for governor.

Most respondents (about 63%) said they are following the conversation around the development of artificial intelligence tools and technologies, and roughly half said they use AI in some personal or work capacity. Czuba also noted that 61% of respondents said they believe AI advancements would result in fewer Michigan jobs and 15% said more jobs. That varied significantly among AI users, who tended to be more bullish, and non-users.

On Canada, Michiganians are increasingly recognizing the United States' neighbor as a friend of the state economy. About 79% of respondents said so, up from 68% in May. "Even those who approve of the President say Canada is a friend by a margin of 73%-9%," Czuba said, also noting that 57% said Trump's tariffs on Canada were hurting Michigan.

On the question of supporting an independent Michigan gubernatorial candidate, about 57% said they were at least somewhat interested, and 23% said they were not interested. About 15% said it "depends."

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is mounting an independent run for governor, but the poll did not name any specific candidates.

©2025 www.detroitnews.com. Visit at detroitnews.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.