Chris Perkins: Playoffs or bust: Dolphins' 2025 season will show what they've learned previous three years

Chris Perkins, South Florida Sun Sentinel on Mar 22, 2025

Published in Football

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Let’s establish a fair and logical baseline expectation for the 2025 Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins should be a playoff team in 2025.

In the big picture, you can’t have this much talent and miss the playoffs in back-to-back years.

In the smaller picture, the Dolphins will have enough talent in 2025 to make the playoffs.

Given reasonable health, they should be equipped — personnel-wise, discipline-wise and strategy-wise — to earn a playoff berth.

The Dolphins return eight offensive starters in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, tight end Jonnu Smith, center Aaron Brewer, right tackle Austin Jackson, fullback Alec Ingold and running back De’Von Achane.

Eight starters!

Four have recently been to a Pro Bowl — Tua, Tyreek, Ingold and Jonnu.

And don’t tell me about guards holding up this operation. If they’re that important, the Dolphins should draft guards in the first and second rounds.

Defensively, they return six starters in nose tackle Benito Jones, tackle Zach Sieler, edge rusher Chop Robinson, linebacker Jordyn Brooks and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Kader Kohou.

Nonetheless, major work remains on the defense. But if edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips return to full strength, you’ve got a good framework from a defense that finished No. 4 in the league last year, and No. 10 in 2023.

Plus, the Dolphins return kicker Jason Sanders.

It’s doubtful that the Dolphins will be good enough to win a playoff game, largely because they probably won’t be good enough to earn a home playoff game.

But given reasonable health, they should have enough talent and knowledge to win 10 games and earn a playoff berth.

If the Dolphins have learned a thing or two in the previous three years, you’d like to think that knowledge would show in Year 4 on many levels.

For example, the 2024 Dolphins likely would have made the playoffs if they had a better plan at backup quarterback.

That shouldn’t be a deficiency next season.

Guard was a problem in 2024. It shouldn’t be a problem in 2025.

On a different level, tardiness was a problem last season. It shouldn’t be a problem this season.

Live and learn.

To paint this with broad strokes, here’s what the Dolphins must do: Keep Tua healthy, make some improvements to the league’s No. 4 defense, continue getting clutch field goals from Sanders.

We all know making the playoffs is more involved than that. But not much.

Winning a playoff game is much more involved. But making the playoffs shouldn’t require anything beyond living up to expectations for the Dolphins.

Again, yes, the Dolphins need reasonable health from their best players to make the playoffs.

As for ways to deliver reasonable health, I don’t have any suggestions there. The Dolphins probably rank near the top of the league as far as granting off days to players.

Is more work the answer?

Well, less work doesn’t seem to be the answer.

Again, live and learn.

As for other issues, we’re now four years into the Chris Grier-Mike McDaniel era.

There shouldn’t be many issues that catch them unprepared.

Even if someone is detained by law enforcement before a game, the Dolphins should be prepared.

The Dolphins are aware of their turnover margin problem (minus-5 last year, 27th in the NFL) and red challenge flag problem (1 of 6 last season).

They know that in 2024 they were in the top 10 in the league in penalties and penalty yards.

Those issues should be addressed and fixed in 2025.

Here are the main keys to Dolphins making the playoffs:

— Keep Tua healthy (he’s missed 11 starts, including playoffs, in the last three years)

— Beat good teams (4-16 vs. playoff teams in last three years)

— Win in December/January (7-12 in last three years)

— Win on the road (10-18 in last three years, including playoffs)

— Find ways to win aside from relying on Tyreek (Dolphins are 11-0 in the last two years when Tyreek has 100 or more yards, 7-16 when he has 99 or fewer yards).

Making the playoffs in 2025 won’t be easy for the Dolphins.

But many of their issues are fixable.

Let’s see what they’ve learned in the previous three seasons.