While North Carolina plays for its postseason life, Duke's postseason begins Saturday
Published in Basketball
DURHAM, N.C. — As history will have it, someday, Saturday’s game at North Carolina is the last semi-meaningless game this Duke team will play, the last time a loss won’t have consequences that threaten the legacy this group is trying to build.
That might even be true.
If Duke wins the ACC championship and goes on to celebrate in San Antonio, a loss in Chapel Hill at the end of the season will be a mere footnote for posterity. It might even be retconned into the wake-up call that served as a springboard to eventual success.
The reality is this, now and for the future: Duke’s postseason begins Saturday, because this is the kind of game good teams win in March. Because Duke’s already had its wake-up call, at Clemson, if it even needed one. Because showing any weakness now, even against a rival with everything to gain and nothing to lose, will only embolden future opponents. Because what happens in Charlotte and Raleigh and beyond will not be disconnected from what happens in Chapel Hill.
“It’s a great reminder that we’re right where we want to be,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday. “You want to play in meaningful games, especially in March. Both teams have a lot to play for. It usually is that case almost always when you play them. For our guys, it’s just the necessary next step we have to take, to go on the road and play somebody really good who really wants to win. In March, you’re going to play people where it really matters what the outcome is.”
The Blue Devils, this season, have managed to recapture the aura of invincibility they once carried around everywhere like the nuclear football. Beating Illinois by 43 and, most recently, Wake Forest by 33 will do that.
Since the Clemson loss, Duke is outscoring opponents by an average of 31.0 points in the seven wins.
The Tar Heels, meanwhile, have won six straight against lesser competition. After being asked if his team was “surging,” North Carolina coach Hubert Davis was asked about Duke.
“They’re surging too!” Davis said, laughing.
But with the exception of Illinois, Duke’s wins have been at home, or on the road against also-rans. This is Duke’s first real road test since Clemson, so there’s something to prove there. There’s also the matter of North Carolina, as a power-conference bubble team, is exactly the kind of opponent Duke is likely to face in the second round, where Tennessee tripped up the Blue Devils two years ago. Best leave that door unopened.
The tangible costs of a Duke loss on Saturday are minimal. The Blue Devils are going to be a No. 1 seed. Even if they cough up the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament on a tiebreaker to Clemson, their path to the title will not be materially different, other than avoiding a potential Friday rematch with the Tar Heels. (If anything, it would be good for the ACC to ensure North Carolina is in the NCAA field along with Duke and Clemson and Louisville.)
There is, however, considerable intangible damage a loss would do. The Blue Devils asserted their utter superiority over North Carolina in Durham, a dynamic obscured by the 17-point margin that flattered the Tar Heels. It’s important to maintain that mental gap. And the jackals will be circling looking for any sign of disarray around assistant coach Jai Lucas’ sudden departure to become head coach at Miami.
(Consider how flawed this dumb system is that it would make someone who helped build a national-title contender walk away on the eve of the NCAA tournament because he has to start building his roster with transfers now.)
Then there’s this, unique to the rivalry, where everything that happens now is layered over decades of shared history. Duke beat North Carolina as badly in Cameron five weeks ago as Duke beat North Carolina in the Smith Center in February 2022. Would North Carolina have beaten Duke in the Final Four that year if the Tar Heels hadn’t spoiled Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game in Cameron a month earlier?
“We played them early on that year and we got smacked,” North Carolina guard R.J. Davis said. “Going into that week, everyone thought that same outcome would happen. The only guys that really believed, the only people in the world that really believed, that was us. We went into that game with so much confidence and the world was lifted off our shoulders. We went out there and hooped.”
It’s happened before. It could happen again. Those aren’t consequences Duke wants to entertain. Its postseason begins now.
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