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Matt Calkins: Why the Mariners are still in prime position to reach their first World Series

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on

Published in Baseball

SEATTLE — As far as advice goes, this might be the most futile piece possible for Mariners fans to follow.

I'll give it a shot anyway.

Relax.

Fill those lungs to capacity and exhale. Lift those lips into a smile. Things are good right now — even if they don't feel like it.

Yes, your team just endured one of its most lopsided losses of the season, falling 13-4 to the Blue Jays in Game 3 of the ALCS. Yes, the invincibility cloak the Mariners donned after winning the first two games of this series has slipped off.

But let's be real — any Mariners supporter takes this deal right now. Up 2-1 against Toronto with two straight home games coming? It beats whatever is behind door No. 2.

This isn't an attempt to Pollyanna a pummeling. After Julio Rodríguez's two-run homer gave the M's a 2-0 lead in the first inning Wednesday, the T-Mobile Park crowd was probably picturing broomsticks making quick work of this best-of-seven series.

But Toronto rapidly erased that visual by scoring 12 unanswered runs — five of which came in the third inning — and finishing the evening with five home runs and four doubles. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby, among the heroes in Game 5 of the ALDS, was a human batting tee Wednesday — allowing eight runs over four innings. Seattle's bullpen wasn't much better. But that's OK.

Here's why the Mariners are still in prime position to reach their first World Series.

They have the better pitching matchup in Game 4.

There haven't been many times over the past decade and a half when Max Scherzer — the future Hall of Famer who will start for Toronto Thursday — is the underdog. However, the three-time Cy Young winner has been shaky in his 40th year on planet Earth, posting a 5.19 ERA for the Blue Jays this year. He has yet to pitch this postseason.

The Mariners, meanwhile, will start Luis Castillo — who put up a 3.54 ERA for Seattle in the regular season and has been masterful in the playoffs. He allowed no runs and one hit over 4 2/3 innings in the Mariners' Game 2 win vs. Detroit in the ALDS. He allowed no runs and no hits in 1 1/3 innings of relief in Game 5 of the same series, which the Mariners won in the 15th.

There are no guarantees in playoff baseball. That's especially true with a player of Scherzer's status on the mound. But the M's are the early sportsbook favorites in Game 4 for a reason.

 

They still have two games at T-Mobile Park

Most teams are better in their home stadium. The Mariners especially so. They went 51-30 in Seattle this season compared to 39-42 on the road.

Yes, that advantage was invisible Wednesday. But put the M's in a high-leverage situation with 47,000 of the most rabid baseball fans behind them? Odds are that fortune finds them.

That's what happened in their previous two home playoffs games, when they were able to best Tigers ace and Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal. It's what very well could happen in Game 4 vs. the Blue Jays Thursday and Game 5 Friday.

In a way, Wednesday's nine-run drubbing was the best kind of defeat. A) It left no room for second-guessing. There isn't a pitch or an error or a missed opportunity that is going to gnaw at the Mariners all night. It was a blowout, pure and simple. B) It took place with Blue Jays pitcher Shane Bieber making the start. The 2020 Cy Young winner has been somewhere between solid and stellar since returning from injury in late August, posting a 3.57 ERA in the regular season. The M's could have beaten him Wednesday with better pitching, but it doesn't feel like a wasted chance.

Bryan Woo will be available this series

Woo was the Mariners' best pitcher this season but hasn't thrown in a big league game since Sept. 19 due to a pec injury. But after a successful live batting practice Monday, it sounds as though he will take the mound in some capacity against the Blue Jays. It could be out of the bullpen. It could be as a starter on a limited pitch count. Either way, this is a potent weapon that the Mariners haven't unleashed yet.

Nobody is arguing that the regular-season ace is anywhere near full-strength. But three or four lights-out innings could be the difference between Seattle wrapping up this series in Seattle or flying back to Canada.

Granted, it's one thing for fans to look at all this through a logical lens and understand the M's still have the upper hand in the series. It’s another for them to keep their anxiety in check for a team that has never made it past this round.

But as Mariners manager Dan Wilson said Wednesday in regard to his team's resilience: This is a team that has done that a lot this year in terms of bouncing back … this is a team that has proven over and over again that fighting back, bouncing back, having resiliency is a part of their DNA.

The Mariners are still in control. So don't panic. Don't freak out. Don't endlessly pace back and forth.

But if the M's drop Game 4 … don't expect that same advice.


© 2025 The Seattle Times. Visit www.seattletimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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