Healthy Padres leadoff hitter Luis Arraez looks to be back to normal

Kevin Acee, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Feb 19, 2025

Published in Baseball

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PEORIA, Ariz. — The Padres had a real leadoff batter in 2024 for the first time in nearly two decades.

This year, maybe they will have the real Luis Arraez.

Arraez won his third consecutive batting title last season, and his .345 on-base percentage in 520 trips to the plate as the Padres’ leadoff hitter was the highest in 18 years by any Padres player with at least 400 plate appearances in the top spot. He was still who his team wanted at the plate if a single would win a game, as he led the National League in batting with runners in scoring position.

He was, however, not quite the offensive force he had been most of the previous five seasons.

If a torn ligament in his left thumb was the reason he was not quite himself in 2024, then that bodes well for ’25.

“I don’t feel anything in my thumb,” Arraez said Wednesday. “It is a good sign, you know. So I think it’s a lot of problem for the pitchers this year.”

Arraez was not too fun to face, even with nine healthy digits.

He had 200 hits for the second straight season, with 159 of them coming in the 117 games after the Padres acquired him in a May 3 trade from the Marlins. He still led the league in contact rate and had the lowest strikeout rate, the third season in a row he did both.

But his .314 batting average was down 21 points from his average over the previous two seasons, his OBP was down 38 points and his slugging percentage was down 53 points.

All of this is explainable and understandable given the fact Arraez was often in a significant amount of pain after a June 25 slide into third base resulted in a torn UCL in his thumb.

“Ooh, a lot,” he said Wednesday when asked how much it hurt to hit last season. “A lot. I don’t want to put any excuse, but I’m a human.”

It was apparent to anyone watching when Arraez would shake his hand after some swings. He also took quite a bit less batting practice to save himself for games. Hitting coach Victor Rodriguez recalled that Arraez would sometimes have the same reaction even while doing soft toss in the cage.

“I don’t know how he won the batting title,” Rodriguez said. “He won it with his heart. There were days I thought he could not play, and he went and played.”

Arraez rested over the All-Star break. But he missed just one game after injuring his thumb, and he started 68 of the Padres' final 77 games. It was not until the National League Division Series was over that he underwent surgery to repair his UCL, the ligament that stabilizes the thumb.

Now, there is no more shaking of his hand after swings.

“I got jammed yesterday, and I didn’t feel anything,” he said Wednesday. “That’s a good sign. … I feel like I got a new thumb.”

So maybe now the Padres will see the old Arraez.

Primarily, that would mean a little more slug and a lot more walks.

He has never been among the league leaders (or even close) in home runs or walks. But both were down significantly last season. And the drops in his home run rate (1.5% from 2022-23 to 0.6% last season) and walk rate (7% from ‘22-23 to 3.6% last season) were related.

He could not naturally drive the ball, which prompted him to swing early, trying to get out in front of the ball to create power. That might have worked to get him some doubles he otherwise would not have had, but it also resulted in more soft contact and more pulling the ball than he ever had in his career.

Committing to swinging early also led to the decrease in walks, as he chased even more pitches outside the zone than ever and still made contact on almost 95% of his swings.

He has come into spring with an eye on improving in both areas.

“This year, I am coming to take a lot of walks,” he said with a caveat. “Let’s see if the umpires are coming good this year. I don’t want to put excuses, but they were bad last year. … If I’m healthy, I can do a lot of good things. I don’t try to hit homers, but if I got the chance to hit, I can do it.”

Whatever was lacking with Arraez, the Padres definitely got more than they paid for in 2024. The Marlins picked up all but $592,796 of his $10.6 million salary.

This year, Arraez is making $14 million. His 2025 salary, agreed to in his final year of team control before becoming eligible for free agency, is higher than all but two other Padres position players — Xander Bogaerts ($25 million) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($20 million).

It is difficult to say what a player is worth in the baseball economy. He is worth what someone will pay him.

Arraez was immensely valuable for the Padres last season.

But for all those magical things that prompt fellow players to call him a wizard with the bat, he could be better. He could be more valuable.

“How he won a batting title without basically a thumb … was beyond impressive,” manager Mike Shildt said Wednesday. “… To still mentally compete with that kind of physical ailment and compete well and still lead us into the playoffs, very, very impressive. A lot of respect for Louie. … And now he looks healthy, and watch out.”