DENVER — Demographic shifts, President Donald Trump’s dropping approval ratings and motivated liberal voters now have national Democrats eyeing a race they’ve long ignored: the typically ruby-red congressional district centered on Colorado Springs.

Over the past month, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted its rating for the 5th Congressional District in the November election from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” projecting at least a tighter race. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Tuesday added the district to its “Districts in Play” list of targeted seats.

Those moves follow a late summer poll that showed more support for a generic Democrat than for incumbent Republican freshman U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank, though the generic Democrat failed to crack 50%.

The designations don’t guarantee a sudden surge in votes for the eventual Democratic nominee in the district, which covers most of El Paso County. Indeed, the changes come with a major caveat: A Democrat has never won the congressional seat — or even come within 10 percentage points of doing so.

In 2024, Crank, who succeeded longtime Rep. Doug Lamborn, won the seat by 14 percentage points.

The shifts do spotlight the race as one that Democrats want their donors and politicos to pay attention to. In fact, plenty of donors already are, with one of the Democratic candidates outraising Crank last year.

At the very least, a competitive race in the 5th District could stretch the map in 2026 as Democrats aim to retake the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats have been overperforming by an average of nearly 16 percentage points in elections since Trump’s 2024 victory, according to an analysis by National Public Radio.

“What makes this district particularly interesting is that, between 2020 and 2024, in the presidential level, most of the country shifted to some extent to the right,” said Erin Covey, an editor with The Cook Political Report. “This was one of the few parts of the country that actually got a little bit bluer between 2020 and 2024.”

However, she added, “Even in a very favorable environment for Democrats, Congressman Crank is going to be the favorite there. But there is a good chance the Democrat can be competitive.”

Democrats raise money

Three Democrats who’ve declared for the seat have raised at least $100,000 already in their bids for the nomination and a chance to unseat Crank after one term.

Candidate Jessica Killin, a former U.S. Army captain and chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, the husband of former Vice President Kamala Harris, has directly raised more than $1.6 million for her campaign as of Dec. 31. That compares to $1.2 million in contributions to Crank this cycle.

River Gassen, the 2024 Democratic nominee for the seat, raised less than $175,000 in her bid last cycle.

The DCCC’s designation of the 5th District as one it considers in play doesn’t come with direct cash support from the national party. But it can lead to staff training to give the nominee’s campaign a professional edge as well as donor spotlights for the winner of the primary.

It also gives Democrats in the race a shot in the arm — the sense that whoever makes it through the June primary election just might have a chance to do what their predecessors couldn’t.

“(The designation) doesn’t change the on-the-ground primary piece of this,” Killin said. “What it does change is that it’s important to have national party support and buy-in, and we now have that.”

Killin, like other Democrats, used the designation to take shots at Crank and link the first-term Republican to the president. In an interview, she called out his recent vote to allow Trump to impose tariffs on Canada, while fellow freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd, a Republican from Grand Junction, voted to overturn the tariffs, helping the measure to pass narrowly.

“A Democrat can and will defeat Jeff Crank in 2026,” said Killin, who won early endorsements from all of Colorado’s congressional Democrats. She attributed her optimism to “a combo platter of changes in the district that have been happening for a long time and on-the-ground work in the district. But it also includes Jeff Crank’s failure to represent the district.”

Joe Reagan, a Democrat who narrowly lost the 2024 primary for the seat and is running again, called the designation “exciting” as well as validation of the work done in the district in recent years.

But, he warned, the district doesn’t necessarily fit into the Washington, D.C., mold of a swing district. Flipping El Paso County will take more than national consultants, instead requiring a focus on local issues, he said.

“This is something that we’ve seen going on for a long time,” Reagan said. “As someone who’s run two cycles in a row, the ground feel here has felt like the district is ripe for change.”

‘He’ll win again,’ Crank’s team predicts

Crank’s team remains unintimidated, even with the race suddenly getting more attention.

Nick Trainer, a senior adviser to the campaign, referenced Killin’s own Washington, D.C., ties, where she also has served as chief of staff to other members of Congress.

“Congressman Crank won his first election in 2024 easily, he’ll win again in 2026,” Trainer wrote in a text message. “Washington DC Democrats have one of their own running in Colorado, so it’s not surprising that the Biden team is engaged.”

Prior to his election to Congress, Crank was a longtime radio host and vice president with the influential conservative advocacy group Americans for Prosperity.

Sara L. Hagedorn, a political science professor at the University of Colorado’s Colorado Springs campus, predicted the DCCC wouldn’t steer a ton of money into the race after the primary. She saw the move as the party planting a flag to mark that the district is on the verge of being competitive — while it’d likely take a truly massive surge to flip it in November.

Muddying the tea leaves are the district’s voter registration numbers. Like the rest of the state, many voters in El Paso County — consistently ranked as one of the fastest-growing counties in the country — have been registering to vote without affiliating with a party. A majority of active voters there, 52%, are unaffiliated, according to data from the secretary of state.

Unaffiliated doesn’t mean the voter is a swing voter, Hagedorn said. Most typically vote like partisans, in favor of their preferred party. It does mean that they’re generally less engaged in politics and harder for the campaigns to reach.

Democrats do have one advantage heading into November, based on the groundswell of motivation among liberals in recent elections, she said. The DCCC putting the spotlight on the race could be about adding fuel to that grassroots energy or putting Republicans on the defensive in the district.

Hagedorn, who previously worked for Republican U.S. Sens. John Thune and Conrad Burns but is “a proud unaffiliated” voter now, also criticized Crank for a lack of overall visibility in the district. Much of his staff is D.C. based, with thin ties to the district, she said.

Hagedorn predicted this all could lead to Crank’s margins noticeably shrinking — but not disappearing.

She was also skeptical that the results in November would represent a permanent, immediate shift for the 5th District. It would be well within the norm for the party in power to lose support in the midterm elections.

“The Democrats are maybe looking at a longer game here,” Hagedorn said, “and maybe taking some shots at the congressman just to hit harder later, looking down the road.”

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