President Donald Trump’s White House claims that “Democrats allowed a $1+ billion heist to take place” in Minnesota, a figure the administration is using to justify his recent targeting of Somali migrants in Minnesota. During a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump asserted that “Somalians ripped off that state for billions of dollars,” declaring he does not want them “in our country.”

The message has become a coordinated refrain by members of the Trump administration to criticize Democratic Gov. Tim Walz as he runs for reelection.

While Minnesota is confronting one of the largest social services fraud scandals in its history, the alleged fraud totals fall short of Trump’s claims. A review of court records shows the alleged fraud uncovered to date is closer to $152 million, though that number is expected to grow as ongoing state and federal investigations into the state programs continue.

What began as a federal probe into fabricated child-meal invoices during the pandemic has expanded into multiple cases that exposed gaps in state oversight.

From a scandal involving Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that distributed federal child-nutrition dollars, to housing and autism-services billing, the alleged losses to date are a fraction of the billions claimed by the Trump administration.

While Minnesota’s fraud cases occurred over multiple years, it would be remarkable for the figures to reach into the billions, as Medicaid fraud control units nationwide recovered about $1.4 billion in the fiscal year 2024.

Asked by reporters about the figure cited by federal officials on Thursday, Walz said he did not know the source of that estimate. “I don’t know where they are getting that number,” he said. “I don’t think we know yet. It certainly could be — we don’t know on this.” He estimated that the state would have a better idea of the fraud’s impact in late January.

In the wake of the fraud allegations, Walz froze payments to providers in 14 state programs in October. He also hired an outside auditor to analyze Medicaid claims.

The White House referred the Star Tribune to other media reports and to the Justice Department when asked how it arrived at the billion-dollar figure. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The billion-dollar figure first surfaced in July when Joseph Thompson, acting U.S. attorney, was investigating Minnesota’s Housing Stabilization Services program. In September, he announced charges against defendants who allegedly defrauded through the program and said it was the “first wave” of fraud cases connected to Medicaid-related programs.

But Thompson, who did not respond to the Star Tribune’s request for comment, has not offered evidence to support the billion-dollar figure.

The fraud he has cited in cases to date totals about $24 million across two Medicaid programs: roughly $10 million tied to housing services and $14 million involving autism therapy for children. The cases are two of several programs in which fraud has been found, according to data from the Minnesota Department of Human Services. The other programs under scrutiny provide services for people with disabilities, mental-health needs and child-care assistance.

The Feeding Our Future case — the nation’s largest pandemic-era fraud, which occurred between 2018 and 2021— involved $246 million billed through federal child-nutrition programs administered by the Minnesota Department of Education. Federal prosecutors have not produced evidence indicating all of that money was fraudulent; a Minnesota Star Tribune review puts the alleged fraud closer to $128 million. Though key ringleaders were convicted this year, including the top official of Feeding Our Future, most of the more than 300 entities involved with Feeding Our Future have not been directly accused of wrongdoing and many criminal cases are pending.

Many state social service programs have seen exponential growth over the past five years. A DHS spokeswoman said the department does not have an estimate of alleged fraud across its Medicaid programs.

So far this year, the agency has opened 918 program-integrity cases, referred 95 to law enforcement and issued payment withholds to 485 providers based on credible allegations — actions that signal ongoing oversight rather than confirmed wrongdoing. DHS officials did not immediately provide the dollar amounts associated with those withholds.

Many of the defendants charged by federal prosecutors are members of Minnesota’s Somali diaspora, a community now contending with broader blowback for the crimes of a small group. Republicans have seized on the cases to criticize Walz’s administration for missing warning signs.

On Friday, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, alleged on a video posted to X that “a Somali fraud ring in Minnesota stole over $1 billion from Medicaid.” He also ordered Minnesota, via letter, to freeze high-risk Medicaid enrollment, verify providers, submit a corrective-action plan by year’s end and give weekly updates or risk losing federal funding.

Somali community leaders warn that sweeping claims about “billions” in stolen aid are fueling backlash against law-abiding families.

Minnesota has confronted outsized fraud allegations before. Between 2011 and 2016, whistleblowers claimed the state’s Child Care Assistance Program was losing as much as $100 million annually to fraud and that some of the money was being funneled overseas to terrorist groups.

A 2019 report by the Office of the Legislative Auditor found no evidence to support those claims. While auditors confirmed $5 million to $6 million in child care fraud during that period, they called the broader allegations “misleading” and determined the sensational figures circulating at the time were vastly overstated.

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