Analysis: Shutdown unlikely to hobble Trump, former aides say

WASHINGTON — How much political capital did President Donald Trump burn during a government shutdown he mostly left to lawmakers to end?

Perhaps, paradoxically, not very much.

So-called “Teflon Don” might have just survived yet another crisis that would have hamstrung any other chief executive, according to former congressional aides and analysts.

The longest government shutdown in American history gave Trump new lines to attack congressional Democrats, but analysts said it appears the crisis did little to affect his standings with Congress or the American public.

“For the past 43 days, Democrats in Congress shut down the government of the United States in an attempt to extort American taxpayers for hundreds of billions of dollars for illegal aliens and people that came into our country illegally from gangs, from prisons, from mental institutions,” a jubilant Trump said during an Oval Office ceremony to sign a shutdown-ending spending package late Wednesday night.

“They wanted to pay them $1.5 trillion, which would’ve really hurt our health care businesses and our recipients at levels never seen before,” he said, surrounded by GOP lawmakers and other allies. “Today, we’re sending a clear message that we will never give in to extortion, [be]cause that’s what it was, that they tried to extort, the Democrats tried to extort our country.”

(Democratic lawmakers say they merely wanted to extend health care benefits on which a large number of Americans depend.)

Several polls conducted while the federal lights were dark did show Trump’s approval rating dipping to a record low of 37%. But those, including the Gallup presidential approval tracker, have shown an uptick back into the low-40s, where his approval rating has mostly hovered during his two terms.

Democratic critics have noted Trump never injected himself into the Senate negotiations that yielded a measure that the chamber approved on Monday and the House sent to his desk on Wednesday night. But aides have insisted for weeks that Trump was in touch with GOP leaders and other “friends” on Capitol Hill during the 43-day shutdown.

Though one Democratic strategist on Wednesday described the president as “MIA” during the Senate talks, lawmakers still needed his approval. They got it Monday afternoon during an Oval Office exchange with reporters.

“I would say so,” he said when asked if he supported the Senate’s spending package. “I think based on everything, I’m hearing they haven’t changed anything. And we have support from enough Democrats and we’re going to be opening up our country.”

Asked if he supported language in the measure that would reverse around 6,000 mass firings of federal workers his administration conducted during the shuttering, Trump replied: “Well, I will abide by the deal. The deal is very good.”

What’s more, congressional Republicans and Democrats already have begun talks about extending tax credits tied to the 2010 Affordable Care Act. The White House continued Wednesday to float negotiations toward a broader measure to overhaul that Barack Obama-era law.

Trump aides say those talks could not occur without the president at the head of the table.

“Once the government reopens, the president, as he’s always maintained, is absolutely open to having conversations about health care,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday. “And I think you’ll see the president putting forth some really good policy proposals [that] the Democrats should take very seriously to fix, again, the system that they broke.

“You can’t trust the same people who broke the system to fix it,” she added. “And, so, the American people will continue to hear from the president on this issue.”

Even though Trump has promised but never delivered a comprehensive health care plan that would repeal and replace the 2010 health care law, some White House and congressional observers contend the shutdown did not erode his standing on Capitol Hill or beyond the Beltway.

“Neither side comes out of these shutdowns smelling like roses. I do not believe the president either advanced or retreated his standing with the public over the shutdown,” G. William Hoagland, who was an aide to former GOP Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, said in a Wednesday email.

“Some issues, particularly SNAP, unpaid federal workers, and delayed and cancelled flights hurt the administration,” he added, using shorthand for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. “But had Democrats continued to hold out for extension of the [health subsidies], they would have received increasing disapproval.”

‘Populist magic’

The bottom line, according to Hogaland, now with the Bipartisan Policy Center: “On net then, as of today, net neutral — a wash as it applies to the president.”

Aaron Cutler, a former aide to House Republican leadership, said in a Wednesday email that “Trump emerged triumphant from the Schumer shutdown.”

“Rep. Ro Khanna has called for Leader Schumer to step down over his handling of the shutdown,” he said, referring to Khanna, a California Democrat, and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y. “President Trump managed the shutdown while also focused on U.S. economic growth, Middle East peace and a trade deal with China. President Trump can walk and chew gum at the same time — he has proved this over and over.”

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, also did not signal a loss of presidential power in a Wednesday statement. “This government shutdown accomplished nothing and caused significant harm to many individuals, not to mention our reputation around the world,” she said. “Lawmakers should stop papering over their fiscal recklessness and face the tough decisions head-on — or at the very least, follow their own rules.”

Democratic strategist Jim Manley, a former aide to then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, also did not report any perceived loss of presidential sway over the shutdown.

“All he did was double down on the fact he wanted to take away food benefits from millions of Americans,” he said in a Wednesday email. “Besides that, he was MIA.”

Yet the president’s unwillingness to try driving talks toward a shutdown-ending resolution could still help him and Republicans down the road, one GOP strategist said.

“The economy is going to be the No. 1 issue next year in the midterms,” said the Republican strategist, granted anonymity in order to speak candidly. “If you look at the [midterms] generic ballot polling, the deficits aren’t that deep [for Republicans]. And Donald Trump has a populist magic that other Republicans just don’t have. So he has plenty of time to come up with an economic message that turns out his voters.”

Despite Trump’s admitted absence from the shutdown-ending talks, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso described Trump as central to the deal.

“So, I want to thank President Trump. I want to thank my colleagues in the Senate on both sides of the aisle who voted to support that,” the Wyoming Republican said. “You know, the president stood strong when [Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer stood here and demanded tens of billions of dollars be sent from the federal Treasury directly to the bank accounts of health insurance companies.”

Barrasso added: “President Trump’s leadership protected taxpayers and continues to protect the country.”