What to watch in Tuesday's elections in Virginia, New Jersey and beyond

WASHINGTON — Tuesday could be a big day for the House Democratic Class of 2018.

Former Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger and New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill are both seeking the governorship of their respective states, the latest members of that prominent class to seek higher office.

Their races on Tuesday headline the off-year elections, with just two governorships up for grabs, as well as a closely watched mayoral election in New York City. In California, voters are considering a ballot initiative to codify a new congressional map for use during the next three election cycles. And voters in Texas’ 18th District are picking a successor to the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, although polls suggest that race is heading for a runoff.

The elections could also serve as an early political test for President Donald Trump and both parties amid the government shutdown, which is soon approaching its sixth week.

On Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that he hoped the election would prompt a “sea change” in the ongoing funding impasse. Time will tell.

Here’s what we’re watching this Election Day:

Virginia governor’s race

Virginia is poised to make history on Tuesday with the election of the commonwealth’s first female governor.

Spanberger faces Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Four years ago, Youngkin capitalized on parental frustrations over education policy to win the governorship in what was seen as an early sign of voter discontent with the Biden administration.

Democrats are hoping that voters in the Old Dominion, especially those in deep-blue Northern Virginia with its high share of federal workers, will send a similar message once again. Since 1973, Virginians have elected governors of the opposite party to the president’s all but once.

Polls have consistently shown Spanberger with a steady lead over Earle-Sears, although she has had to contend with revelations this fall that Jay Jones, the party’s nominee for attorney general, sent text messages using violent language directed toward a political opponent and his family.

Spanberger has condemned the texts but resisted Republican calls for Jones to drop out. Polls have shown the attorney general’s race remains tight, leading to predictions of increased ticket-splitting this year. The last time a party did not sweep the commonwealth’s three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — was 2005.

A former CIA operations officer, Spanberger opted not to seek a fourth term in the House last year to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. She has stuck to a message focused on improving the commonwealth economy, including opposing Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.

Over her House tenure, she was known as a centrist and tried to carve her own path, which included opposing Nancy Pelosi for speaker. She later joined House Democratic leadership as a battleground district representative.

New Jersey governor’s race

While New Jersey remains a blue-leaning state, Tuesday’s gubernatorial election will test whether the rightward shift the state saw in last year’s presidential race and the 2021 gubernatorial election has stuck.

Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, is again running, this time against Sherrill. Polls have shown the congresswoman mostly in the lead, though her margins have narrowed in the closing weeks of the race.

Ciattarelli lost to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by a closer-than-expected 3 points in 2021, while Kamala Harris won the state by 6 points last fall, down from Joe Biden’s 16-point win four years prior.

New Jersey voters would buck a longtime trend if Sherrill wins: No party has won three gubernatorial elections in a row since the 1960s.

The race was rocked by revelations in late September, when CBS News reported that the National Archives had released a mostly unredacted copy of Sherrill’s military records after a Ciattarelli ally had filed a Freedom of Information Act request. Sherrill’s campaign accused the Trump administration of illegally releasing the files.

The Ciattarelli campaign, in contrast, focused on reports that Sherrill, a retired Navy helicopter pilot, did not walk at the Naval Academy’s 1994 commencement ceremony, in which more than 100 midshipmen were implicated in a cheating scandal. Sherrill said her name did not appear in the ceremony program because she “didn’t turn in” some of her classmates.

Sherrill, who, like Spanberger, was first elected to the House in 2018, won a hard-fought primary in June, but she has struggled to take full command of the race since. In recent weeks, she has criticized the Trump administration for freezing funds for the Hudson River Tunnel Project, a key issue for New Jersey commuters, during the government shutdown.

Ciattarelli, who also unsuccessfully ran for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2017, has embraced Trump and some of his policies more forcefully this time. He won the president’s endorsement ahead of the GOP primary in June. Trump was also set to join a tele-rally to support Ciattarelli’s campaign on the eve of Election Day.

If elected, Sherrill would be the state’s second female governor. She has the backing of the first, former Republican Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.

New York City mayor’s race

Polls show state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in good shape to win Tuesday’s mayoral election in the nation’s largest city. Mamdani won the Democratic nomination in June, although one of his primary rivals, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, is running as a third-party candidate.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams suspended his independent campaign in late September and later backed Cuomo, who also won an election eve endorsement from Trump. Adams remains on the ballot, though, as does Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who rejected calls to drop out to help consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote around Cuomo.

Mamdani, like Spanberger and Sherrill, has focused on economic issues, although his policy proposals lean more progressive, including a rent freeze and city-owned grocery stores. He’s appeared to moderate some positions since winning the party’s nomination, saying, for example, that he plans to ask Jessica Tisch to stay on as police commissioner if he wins after once saying he supported defunding the police department, a claim he has since disavowed.

Mamdani, who would be the city’s first Asian American and first Muslim mayor if elected, has drawn criticism from rank-and-file elected Democrats over his past comments on Israel and Gaza. He has accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza and said he would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he enters New York City.

He secured a last-minute endorsement from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, but New York’s two Democratic senators, Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have not weighed in on the race.

Republicans, though, are poised to try and make Mandani, a self-described democratic socialist, the face of his party by linking him to other Democrats, including those in swing seats in New York and around the country.

California’s redistricting ballot measure

California voters will decide on a ballot measure that would reshape the state’s congressional districts, and bolster Democrats’ chances of flipping five Republican-held seats.

Proposition 50 would amend the state constitution to allow the use of a new map, which was approved by the Democratic-controlled Legislature in response to a Republican-led effort in Texas targeting five Democratic-held seats.

The measure has the backing of Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former President Barack Obama and a host of other prominent Democrats. Notable opponents include former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

If approved, the new California map would remain in place for the next three congressional elections, before redistricting control would revert back to the independent citizens commission that the state typically relies on.

California’s current House delegation has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans, five of whom would be more vulnerable under the redrawn map.

Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley and Ken Calvert would see their Trump-won districts transform into seats that Kamala Harris would have carried by double digits last year, according to calculations by Inside Elections. Rep. Darrell Issa’s Southern California seat would shift to battleground status, while Rep. David Valadao, who has long been accustomed to tough races, would see his Trump-won Central Valley district become a shade bluer.

Texas special election

Voters in Texas’ 18th District are picking a successor to Turner, who died in March, but the special election is likely to be decided in a runoff, with no candidate expected to exceed the 50% threshold to win outright.

The crowded field for the nonpartisan special election for the deep-blue Houston-area district includes several Democrats with electoral experience: acting Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards and state Rep. Jolanda Jones.

Recent Republican-led redistricting in Texas has complicated the special election and caused some voter confusion. While the 18th District lines were changed under the new map, the contest to fill the remainder of Turner’s term, including a likely February runoff, is taking place under the old lines.

Voters will then go to the polls in March to select their nominees for the November 2026 ballot, this time under the new district lines. Whoever wins the race to serve out Turner’s term could find themselves facing Democratic Rep. Al Green in that March primary. Green, whose 9th District was redrawn as a safe Republican seat, has signaled he’s considering a run in the new 18th, which subsumes much of his current district.