In Texas special election, Democrats try to beat opponents -- and voter confusion

WASHINGTON — Next month’s special election in a heavily Democratic House district in Houston includes more than a dozen candidates vying to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner.

Yet the crowded field of contenders shares a common opponent: voter confusion.

Responding to pressure from President Donald Trump to bolster the GOP’s chances of maintaining its narrow House majority, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map this summer. The new lines are subject to a lawsuit, but if they hold, residents from Dallas to South Texas will find themselves in new districts in time for next year’s midterm elections.

For voters in the 18th District, the uncertainty is playing out right now. The nonpartisan primary to fill the remainder of Turner’s term will be held on Nov. 4 under the current district map. If no one receives a majority of the vote, the top two contenders will compete in a runoff election, most likely in February.

Then the following month, voters will go to the polls again to select candidates for the November 2026 ballot, this time under the new district lines.

The GOP-led redistricting push introduced another wrinkle: Whoever wins the race to serve out Turner’s term could find themselves facing Democratic Rep. Al Green in the March primary. Green, whose 9th District was redrawn as a safe Republican seat, has signaled he’s considering a run in the redrawn 18th, which will subsume much of his current district.

The pileup of candidates and the uncertainty created by the new district lines are all contributing to the chaos in what is likely to be a low-turnout special election.

“We know from political science research that a confused voter is a nonvoter,’’ said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “If we get above 10% (voter participation), I’d be pretty surprised.”

A long vacancy

Besides confronting voter confusion, many local Democrats are angry that the seat has been vacant for so long. Turner, a former Houston mayor, was less than two months into his term when he died in March. The seat had also been vacant for several months last year following the death of longtime Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, blamed Harris County election officials when he set the November special election date, saying they needed time to prepare.

“No county in Texas does a worse job of conducting elections than Harris County,” Abbott said in April. “Forcing Harris County to rush this special election on weeks’ notice would harm the interests of voters.”

Several of the Democratic candidates reject his rationale.

“You know the phrase ‘No taxation without representation’? Well, apparently, that doesn’t apply to the 18th Congressional District,’’ said Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Council member who lost to Jackson Lee in a primary last year. “Then they put this district on the chopping block when it had no voting member, and they sliced it and diced it.”

Another hopeful, acting Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, called Abbott’s decision “reprehensible” and said the delay was driven by a desire “to ensure that the Republicans could keep their slim margin in Congress.”

An Oct. 7-11 poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found Menefee and Edwards as the front-runners in the race, with 27% and 23%, respectively. Democratic state Rep. Jolanda Jones trailed with 15%, while Republican businesswoman Carmen Maria Montiel, a former television journalist who lost to Jackson Lee in 2022, had 6%.

Democrats are heavily favored to hold the district, which Trump lost by nearly 40 points, according to calculations by The Downballot. Early voting in the election began Monday.

“This is a base turnout election, so if you can convince the base that you care about these core issues, then you’re going to have an advantage,” Rottinghaus said.

Another candidate, 27-year-old Isaiah Martin, is aiming to be the first Gen Z member of the House from Texas. The former Jackson Lee staffer has cast himself as an outsider whose skilled use of TikTok has drawn him thousands of followers.

Rottinghaus said Martin could gain traction as a debate over age continues to roil Democratic politics. “He’s on the progressive vanguard,’’ Rottinghaus said. “But it’s a challenge, because … young people don’t vote in as big numbers as older voters, so his constituency may be harder to come by in a tight race like this.”

Meet the candidates

The 18th District has a storied legacy and was held by a number of prominent Black leaders with national profiles, including Jackson Lee, anti-hunger activist Mickey Leland and Barbara Jordan, who made history in 1972 when she became the first Black woman from the South elected to the House.

Menefee has landed several key endorsements from prominent Texas Democrats, including former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and two Senate hopefuls, former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico. He also has the backing of the Houston Chronicle editorial board; Leaders We Deserve, a PAC that promotes generational change in politics; and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, an up-and-coming progressive with a national platform. Local supporters include Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo and Erica Lee Carter, Jackson Lee’s daughter who briefly held the seat after winning a special election to succeed her mother last year.

Menefee, 37, said his background as Harris County’s top civil attorney — a role that has seen him take on several state GOP officials in court — makes him the right person to challenge Republicans in Washington.

“People are crying out for leadership,’’ he said, “They’re crying out for folks to hold the line and to stand up to Donald Trump.”

Edwards has the support of EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights; the gun violence prevention group Moms Demand Action; businesswoman Tina Knowles, the mother of music superstar Beyoncé; Leland’s widow, Alison Leland; and several House Democrats, including California’s Lateefah Simon and Virginia’s Jennifer McClellan.

Edwards is seeking the 18th District seat for the second straight cycle. She ended a mayoral bid in 2023 after Jackson Lee entered the race and switched to the House contest. But after losing the mayor’s race, Jackson Lee decided to seek reelection to her seat and went on to defeat Edwards, her onetime intern, in a March 2024 primary. Then, after Jackson Lee died before the general election, Edwards tried again, but local party officials narrowly picked Turner over her.

“My commitment to the district remains unchanged,’’ Edwards said. “And people like that I never went away. They like that I’ve been tested. Some of the most legendary folks … are the people who don’t take no for an answer.”

Edwards, who founded a nonprofit agency that helps small-business owners, is also emphasizing generational change. The 43-year-old said fresh voices are needed to fight Republican efforts to cut funding for health care and education.

Jones, an attorney and former member of the Houston City Council and local school board, has carved out a progressive lane since her election to the Texas House in 2022. A strong supporter of abortion access and a criminal justice overhaul, she was among a group of Democratic lawmakers who left the state over the summer in an effort to block the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting plan.

“They will not use my Black body to get the quorum that they need in order to steal two Black seats in Texas,” Jones said. “I became the face of the quorum because I dared to tell the truth that those maps were racist.”

Jones, 59, has the backing of nine of her Democratic legislative colleagues, in addition to former Rep. Craig Washington, who held the 18th District seat before Jackson Lee. She’s also been endorsed by New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. (If she wins, Jones would be the first out Black lesbian elected to the House.)

Her fundraising has lagged behind that of Menefee and Edwards, who launched campaigns well before Jones entered the race in June after the close of the legislative session. Pre-general election fundraising reports are due with the Federal Election Commission before 12:01 a.m. Friday.

Jones, though, said she’s used to being underestimated.

“We have a history, and I think there’s a history around the U.S., where people who have grassroots work beat people who have the establishment’s support all day, every day,’’ she said.

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