Analysis: Arizona's open 1st District shifts to Toss-up

Nathan L. Gonzales, CQ-Roll Call on Oct 1, 2025

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WASHINGTON — One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek reelection to Arizona’s 1st District.

After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of Democratic target lists once again from his Scottsdale-area district that has a Republican Baseline advantage of just 1.5 points.

While Donald Trump carried the seat by 3 points over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Ruben Gallego finished ahead of his GOP opponent by 5 points in the Senate contest. District voters backed Democrat Mark Kelly by nearly 7 points in the 2022 Senate race, and Joe Biden bested Trump by a point in the 2020 presidential contest.

In other words, the district is fundamentally competitive.

Schweikert wasn’t the perfect candidate — even GOP allies wanted him to raise more money and he paid tens of thousands of dollars in fines over ethics violations — but he absorbed millions of dollars in Democratic attacks over the years and still prevailed. Now that he’s running for governor, there’s more uncertainty in the race. We’re changing the Inside Elections rating from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, which is a category better for Democrats.

Considering the seat just officially became open, the GOP race is still taking shape. Potential GOP candidates include state Reps. Matt Gress, Justin Wilmeth, Joseph Chaplik and Pam Carter. State Rep. Alex Kolodin is currently running for secretary of state, but could switch races. State Sens. Carine Werner and Shawnna Bolick have already declined to run. There’s also talk about Indy car driver Danica Patrick running, but that doesn’t appear likely at this stage, according to local sources.

It’s too early to know whether a candidate will secure Trump’s blessing. But one Arizona-based GOP strategist cautioned that a MAGA candidate wouldn’t line up well with voters in Scottsdale, who’ve never been excited about Trump, and that part of Schweikert’s success was not being viewed in the same vein as the president.

While a competitive Republican primary is likely, Democrats already have a busy primary of their own. In the top tier of candidates are former state Rep. Amish Shah, who lost to Schweikert last year, former news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary to Shah, and wealthy businessman Jonathan Treble. And there are more candidates running: Democratic National Committee member Mark Robert Gordon, media executive Rick McCartney and administrative law judge Brian Del Vecchio.

Shah’s 2024 campaign didn’t inspire a ton of confidence from Democrats in Washington, especially his aversion to airing attack ads. But residual name identification could help him top a crowded primary field with a plurality of the vote once again.

After their nominees are chosen in August, both parties would then be set for a three-month sprint to the general election.

Arizona’s 1st District is the thirteenth House race rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections this cycle. Republicans are defending nine seats in the Toss-up category compared with four Democratic-held seats.

Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority, but Republicans are helping their cause through an aggressive, mid-decade redistricting strategy pushed by the White House. Including newly-redrawn seats from finalized maps in Texas and Missouri, and a minimum of 10 GOP seats in Ohio (which doesn’t yet have a new map), Republicans would be at 214 seats rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican. That’s just four short of a majority and doesn’t count potential further redistricting advantages through redrawing districts in Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, North Carolina and Florida or any victories in Toss-up races.

But those calculations also don’t take into account a potential voter backlash against the president and Republicans in power or potential GOP turnout problems when Trump isn’t on the ballot. And seats that currently favor Republicans could turn into more serious contests and move toward Democrats.