South Korea’s former opposition leader Lee Jae-myung still remains the frontrunner for now in a presidential election that will struggle to heal the political divide in a nation racked by leadership chaos in recent months.

As the dust settles on a flurry of resignations, leadership changes and court rulings this week, Lee likely continues to hold the upper hand in a June 3 vote that will pit him against former Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo or a rival from the ruling People Power Party.

The winner of the presidential election faces the task of restoring stability and confidence in South Korea’s democracy among the nation’s populace and its allies, while also protecting a trade-dependent economy’s interests against Donald Trump’s tariff campaign.

If Lee, of the Democratic Party, does prove successful in finally becoming president, his tenure is unlikely to be smooth sailing despite already controlling parliament. Lee continues to face an array of legal challenges and his opponents are unlikely to forget the partisan brinkmanship he employed to pressurize the People Power Party and eventually oust former President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived martial law decree.

“Lee is still on track to win the election as many voters associate the PPP with martial law despite his legal situation, but he’ll face a mountain of challenges - a divided nation, an economic slump and trade talks, just to name a few,” said Choi Byung-chun, former deputy head of the DP’s think tank.

A Gallup Korea poll released April 25 shows Lee with 38% support among voters compared with just 6% for Han. The two final candidates bidding to become the ruling People Power Party representative in the election, former party chair Han Dong-hoon and ex-Employment and Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, garnered 8% and 6% each. Han Duck-soo is expected to seek to unite a campaign with the PPP’s final candidate to rally conservative voters against Lee.

A joint survey by four pollsters released on Thursday shows Lee secured 42%, followed by Han Duck-soo with 13%, Han Dong-hoon with 9% and Kim with 6%. Asked about a showdown scenario between the former premier and the DP candidate, Han’s support goes up to 31%, against Lee’s 46%.

The latest legal woes for Lee and Han’s declaration of his candidacy may already have eaten into his lead.

The biggest immediate threat to Lee’s candidacy is his sentencing after he was found guilty of violating election law during an earlier presidential campaign against Yoon in 2021. The Supreme Court on Thursday overturned an earlier acquittal ruling in the case and sent it back to the high court for sentencing.

The original district court sentence was a suspended one-year prison sentence, which would make him ineligible to take public office if finalized. Chang Young-soo, a law professor at Korea University, said the high court is likely to hand down a similar sentence.

Ineligibility would throw the race wide open since the Democratic Party doesn’t have an obvious replacement candidate waiting in the wings.

Still, even if Lee is sentenced again before the election, he would likely appeal it, enabling him to stand. Should he win the election, experts are divided on whether he would have presidential immunity to stay in office. It’s a point the PPP would inevitably target especially after the barrage of impeachment motions launched by Lee’s party in recent months.

Constitutional Court Secretary-general Kim Jung-won said it is “likely” that a sitting president would lose his position if he gets a sentence that would have nullified his election when asked about this point in parliament last October.

The DP proposed a bill Friday to enable the suspension of criminal court proceedings for presidents while in office, a move characterized by the PPP as “shameless, preferential treatment” aimed at facilitating a Lee presidency.

“The broad consensus is that presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution but not from court sentencing from trials initiated before they take office,” said Lee Chang-hyun, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies’ law school. “Still, realistically it would be difficult for courts to deliver a sentence that is going to be that controversial.”

Another key element in the calculus of the election is the ability of the PPP to coalesce around a unified candidate that can unite and appeal beyond conservatives voters.

The former Acting President Han is not a member of the PPP, and his experience as a veteran technocrat having served both conservative and progressive administrations might help him reach beyond the party’s support base.

Han seeks to enable two-term presidencies with shorter four-year durations, a move that might bring more continuity to the nation’s political leadership. That could resonate among the public, though his failure to stop Yoon’s martial law gamble and his blocking of Constitutional Court appointments ahead of Yoon’s impeachment trial may limit his ability to gain wider support beyond the PPP.

There is also the possibility that the candidate selected by the PPP on Saturday may not throw his weight behind Han. A splintered battle against Lee would face a far higher hurdle for victory, a reality that might then prompt Han to reconsider his stance.

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With assistance from Jaehyun Eom, Sangmi Cha and Sanjit Das.

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