Irish PM Simon Harris almost level with Sinn Fein in exit poll

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris’s party is locked in a virtual dead heat with Sinn Fein in the general election, according to the official exit poll, suggesting his decision to go to the country early didn’t go as planned.

Harris’s Fine Gael won 21% of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, according to the poll commissioned by broadcaster RTE and others. The main opposition party Sinn Fein won 21.1%. Fine Gael’s coalition partner in the last government, Fianna Fail, was on 19.5.%. The poll had a margin of error of 1.4%.

The premier called the vote, which wasn’t due to be held until March, after his party surged in opinion polls since he became Taoiseach in April. That, plus a large giveaway budget in October and a slide in support for Sinn Fein, made it seem like the optimal time to go to the polls.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going back into government is still seen as the most likely outcome — both have ruled out working with Sinn Fein. But a tight race is not ideal for Harris, especially if he emerges with less support than his rivals.

Based on the exit poll, Fine Gael’s support has slumped since an Irish Times poll in September — before the election announcement — showed Fine Gael at 27%, Sinn Fein at 20% and Fianna Fail at 19%.

But Harris’s election campaign was beset with slip-ups, the worst a viral video of him walking away from a disability care worker and dismissing her view that the government wasn’t doing enough. Harris later apologized.

“If the 21% is accurate, it is still lower than what Fine Gael were running pre the calling of the election,” Gail McElroy, political science professor at Trinity College Dublin, told RTE. “They might have hoped at one stage having 24, 25% — so it is probably a little depressed.”

For Sinn Fein, led by Mary Lou McDonald, it represents a slight recovery after the left-leaning party struggled to adapt to concerns about immigration, resulting in a lackluster performance in local and European elections in June.

“When you consider where we would’ve been coming out of the local and European elections, I have to say it’s a phenomenal result,” Matt Carthy, Sinn Fein’s director of elections, told RTE. “This is a hugely positive exit poll, but the real votes will be counted tomorrow and let’s see where they land.”

But forming a government looks all but impossible for Sinn Fein even if it wins the popular vote. Without the option of a coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, there is no clear route to power without dramatically increasing its seat haul.

Instead, a repeat of 2020 — when Sinn Fein narrowly won the popular vote but Fine Gael and Fianna Fail formed the government — still looks likely.

In Ireland’s electoral system, a version of proportional representation with voters ranking preferred candidates, parties need to win 88 seats for a majority in the 174-seat Dail, or parliament. But no party fielded enough candidates to reach that threshold on its own, meaning some form of coalition is inevitable.

Counting begins at 9 a.m. on Saturday, with a clearer picture likely to emerge by the afternoon or later. Forming a coalition could take weeks of negotiations.

The exit poll suggests that if Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were to form a coalition, they would need more than one smaller party to go into government. It’s not clear who they would bring in. Their coalition partner last time, the Greens, are expected to have fewer seats this time.

For the two incumbent centrist parties, the support of a smaller center-left group would be ideal. According to the exit poll, the Social Democrats are on 5.8%, Labour at 5% and the Green Party at 4%.

The exit poll is based on over 5,000 interviews conducted immediately after people voted at polling stations across 43 constituencies across the country.

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