John Duarte vs. Adam Gray for Congress: Why experts are watching this California election

California’s 13th Congressional District, home to one of the nation’s closest House of Representatives races in 2022, is expected to be just as hotly contested this fall.

Nonpartisan political analysts say that the 2024 rematch election between freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, is a tossup.

Gray lost to Duarte, a farmer and businessman, by 564 votes — about four-tenths of a percentage point — in 2022. Duarte prevailed on the second-smallest margin of any House race winner nationwide that year.

The Sacramento Bee has spoken to nonpartisan analysts at The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball over the past year about the race, which is drawing a lot of national attention to the San Joaquin Valley, a politically purple agricultural section of California.

There are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four vacancies in the House. Three of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.

Analysts say Duarte will have a tougher time in November than other vulnerable incumbents because he is a first-term congressman.

“Anything that’s good for Democrats is going to have an outsized effect on Duarte simply because he’s the less-tested candidate,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, in an August interview.

Compared to other Republicans on the ballot in the 13th in 2022, Duarte underperformed, Rubashkin said.

“(Duarte) can also be more easily roped into the national Republican Party because he hasn’t had as much time to show voters that he’s not like other Republicans,” said Erin Covey, a House analyst and editor at The Cook Political Report, in an August interview.

California’s 13th Congressional District

The 13th district, which includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

It is one of more than a dozen congressional districts across the country held by GOP congressmen where President Joe Biden would have beaten former President Donald Trump in 2020 had current legislative boundaries been in place. Boundaries were redrawn to reflect the 2020 census. Voters in the new 13th would have picked Biden by 11 points in 2020.

It’s a Latino-majority voting-age district with a large population of young people.

Compared to the rest of California, this district tends to have low turnout, leading older, white, more conservative voters to disproportionately impact elections there.

Candidates

Legislative issues touted by the candidates concern affordability, water access, health, immigration and public safety.

Gray, 46, served in the California State Assembly for a decade before leaving his seat to pursue a congressional bid. He said that Congress wasn’t working hard enough on San Joaquin Valley issues, including water infrastructure and energy.

“These are all issues that are extraordinarily important to a district that is part of the greatest, largest agricultural valley in the world: Congress can make investments in water infrastructure,” Gray said in an interview. “Congress can make investments in renewable energy and new opportunities to take advantage of the biocircular economy here in the Valley.”

The biocircular economy aims to reduce pollution and promote sustainable products by repurposing organic waste from agriculture, forestry and other industries.

Duarte, 58, serves on House committees concerning agriculture, natural resources and transportation and infrastructure. He emphasized energy costs when asked about the district’s toughest challenges.

“We’ve got to drill American oil. We’ve got to continue to develop natural gas and welcome it as a key energy resource for the future,” Duarte said in an interview. “And and we’re spending too much money, bringing in too much debt and driving up power costs too high with the green energy initiatives, especially here in California.”

Duarte said he preferred a potential Trump administration to one under Vice President Kamala Harris, asserting that voters will recall quality of life improving under the former president five years ago before the coronavirus pandemic.

“Families were doing better before Joe Biden, Kamala Harris had control,” he said.

Gray said he was excited for a generational change in a potential Harris administration, that he’d be “right up there alongside her” to focus on constructive bipartisan issues, which he said was encouraging with the Republican speakers at the Democratic National Convention.

“I’m excited for turning the page, something different, a generational change in leadership,” Gray said. “But more importantly, somebody who’s willing to embrace Republicans.”

Fundraising

Gray has fundraised well against Duarte recently, though the Republican retains an edge in overall funds.

While campaign finances are far from the only factor in determining an election, cash on hand lets candidates spend more on advertisements, events and other supplies necessary to a campaign. It’s also good to reserve money in case of unexpected issues.

Campaign funds come from a wide range of sources, including those not specified in the candidate’s official report, from individual donors, political action committees, other lawmakers and joint-fundraising groups.

Gray’s campaign committee collected almost $992,000 from the beginning of April to end of June, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, which became available in July. Duarte’s reported receiving nearly $463,000 during that same period.

Duarte had almost $2.1 million on hand to Gray’s over $1.8 million.

Just as national monetary attention floods into the San Joaquin Valley, national issues are key to the race, analysts said.

“Those local issues do matter,” Covey said. “But so many of these House races have become nationalized, and we’re going to see that the dominant issues that all these other races are focused on are also going to be the dominant issues in the Central Valley races.”

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