The term tipping point provides a useful way of thinking about that theoretical juncture along any path when the possible becomes the inevitable.

We often use the term in connection with climate change: The tipping point is the moment when the processes that contribute to global warming take on an irreversible life of their own. For example, greenhouse gasses tend to raise the global temperature, which tends to melt the arctic tundra, which releases more greenhouse gasses, creating a loop that continues until it reaches a theoretical point of no return.

Unfortunately, in the case of climate change, the tipping point probably isn’t so theoretical.

But in the case of President Donald Trump, does it exist, at all? Is there a point beyond which Trump’s most committed fans will finally withhold their support?

If you’re a steadfast Trump supporter, you may have already given up on this column. But I hope not. It’s worth considering whether Trump’s behavior could ever reach a tipping point that would change your mind about him.

And if there is no tipping point, then that’s a worthwhile piece of information, as well.

There’s not much point in dwelling on supposed tipping points from the past, except for the light they shed on future tipping points.

But consider a couple:

Plenty of commentators—me included—thought candidate Trump was finished when the Access Hollywood tape came out during the 2016 campaign. After all, Trump was caught bragging about how his power, as a celebrity, allowed him to commit sexual assault with impunity. Ordinarily this would immediately disqualify all candidates for public office, but not Trump. In short, the critics were wrong.

They were also wrong in imagining that Jan. 6, 2021, would be a deal-breaker for Trump supporters. In a systematic, if inept, and eventually violent way, Trump and his allies tried to engineer a reversal of his loss in 2020. Trump still contends—erroneously—that the election was rigged, and the violent insurrectionists of Jan. 6 have been pardoned.

Somehow all of this seems as if it should be disqualifying for the presidency. But then we re-elected Trump. Some tipping point!

But is there any revelation or act by Trump that could change MAGA minds? For example, if the Epstein emails confirm what already seems obvious—that Trump “knew about the girls”—would that represent a tipping point that would undercut Trump’s support from his base?

What if Trump invades Venezuela—or Panama or Greenland!—in a clear act of war without a congressional declaration of war, would that make a difference to Trump’s most avid supporters?

One hopes, but it’s hard to be optimistic. Trump voters have already tolerated a lot, and thus they have a lot invested in Trump.

What about the 2026 midterms? If Trump tries to do in 2026 what he attempted on Jan. 6, 2021, would that put off Trump voters?

The proposition is not far-fetched. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, it’s difficult to imagine that Trump will quietly concede the election.

In fact, much of the infrastructure for contesting a Republican defeat in 2026 is already in place. In the current issue of The Atlantic (“The Coming Election Mayhem”), David Graham describes the measures that are already being taken to cast doubt on the validity of the 2026 election. The right people have been put into strategic positions, we’ve gotten used to seeing federalized troops on our streets, and as early as 2020 Trump was already floating the idea of seizing voting machines.

If you’re a Trump voter who believes, with Trump, that the 2020 election was rigged, then I thank you for reading this far, but I’m sure that none of this is convincing.

Still, it’s worth thinking about: If Democrats win in 2026, and Trump tries to overturn the election, will that be the tipping point that changes your mind about Trump?

Let’s hope so. Unfortunately, by then it will probably already be too late.

_____

_____

©2025 Tribune Content Agency, LLC