Trudy Rubin: Trump's 'new Middle East' depends on leaders who skipped his Egypt summit

The most important optic of President Donald Trump’s Gaza summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was who was absent from the roster of world leaders standing behind him as he declared peace had come to the Middle East.

Among the missing were the key players who will determine whether the president’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza ever gets beyond its first phase: the ceasefire-for-hostages deal that, praise the heavens, returned the 20 living Israeli hostages and permitted desperately needed aid to begin flowing into Gaza.

The stunning absence of those essential figures has received far too little attention from the media. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister who insists the Gaza war isn’t over, stayed home. And even more telling, so did Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, and Mohamed bin Zayed, leader of the United Arab Emirates, without whose billions, Gaza won’t be rebuilt. Both only sent underlings.

Nor was there any visible Palestinian presence — Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was in the hall but not on the dais. And Jordan’s King Abdullah, who was on the stage, and whose role will be crucial to the future of the West Bank, barely received a mention from Trump.

This was a stark reminder of how far removed the Mideast remains from Trump’s over-the-top declaration at the summit that he had brought peace to the Mideast after 3,000 years.

I do not mean to detract from the president’s achievement in arm-twisting Netanyahu into accepting a ceasefire he had repeatedly resisted. The sight of Israeli mothers, fathers, and siblings clinging to their returning loved ones was incredibly moving, as was the sight of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians trudging back to destroyed homes where many had lost family members to bombs.

But the absence of those three key leaders goes to the heart of what was missing from Trump’s self-adulatory speech, and from the lavish praise he received from attendees seeking to please him.

The summit was more about celebrating the president than it was about achieving peace. “I am the only one that matters,” Trump said on the stage. Moreover, the statement issued post-gathering — which the White House labeled “The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity” — was bereft of any specifics, but stuffed with windy platitudes about dignity for all.

There is little sign so far that the president or his team is prepared to do the necessary work to ensure a peace process moves forward, which requires keeping Netanyahu onside, getting the Gulf Arabs on board, and giving the Palestinians an immediate role.

According to the Israeli press, Netanyahu didn’t want to be seen with Abbas, since he insists the Palestinian Authority can have no say in peace talks. Israeli media have also reported that Trump personally invited the Israeli leader to attend. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said he would bow out if that happened, because of his criticism of the Israeli military’s physical destruction of Gaza.

As for the Saudi crown prince, known as MBS, and the United Arab Emirates’ bin Zayed, they are still unhappy about changes in the 21-point plan Trump had told them he had agreed to. Substantial changes were made after last-minute Israeli intervention.

Those countries are meant to take the lead in standing up an international force to police the West Bank and pay for reconstruction. The initial 21-point plan envisioned a temporary Arab-led force (with no Hamas allowed) that would eventually give way to a force led by a reformed Palestinian Authority.

It also set out a path to Palestinian statehood. The final version left Gaza’s future vague, while Netanyahu has ruled out PA participation or a Palestinian state.

The final 20-point plan created by the Trump team of real estate magnate Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner envisions day-to-day Gaza governance run by a team of Palestinian technocrats, under an international “Board of Peace” headed by Trump.

But who will choose these “technocrats” is a mystery so far, as is the role of the peace board. It’s also hard to envision Trump’s role.

Judging by the Israeli government’s approach in Gaza, it may try to find compliant Palestinians who have little legitimacy in their community for the technocratic committee.

As a foreign correspondent based in Jerusalem in the 1980s, I watched a similar process take place on the West Bank, where Israel tried to create “village leagues” that would undermine elected Palestinian local officials. The project failed because the “leagues” weren’t accepted by locals.

Without signs of a shift in Netanyahu’s attitude toward the PA, and White House signals that Palestinian civil society in Gaza will be consulted, it is hard to see the Saudi leadership buying into this project.

Similarly, both the Saudis and the UAE have made clear in the past that they oppose the annexation of the West Bank that the Israeli far-right is demanding. That also applies to the current de facto annexation being carried out by radical settlers and extremist ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet.

So the missing faces on the stage behind Trump are sending a message that the touted 20 points are in need of revision. Saudi and UAE participation, along with that of Qatar and Turkey, is essential in squeezing Hamas to disarm and organizing the negotiations that follow. Their absence cannot be ignored.

No international “Board of Peace” or team of Palestinian technocrats will be able to advance in Gaza unless Palestinian civil society is genuinely consulted and allowed to participate. Indeed, that is the only way to turn them against Hamas, because they would finally have hope in the future.

The Saudis and Emiratis know this. They don’t want to get sucked into a process in which they are funding new buildings that will be destroyed in the next round of Gaza warfare.

Nor are they willing to fulfill Trump’s dream of extending the Abraham Accords to include Saudi recognition of Israel if the price required is acquiescence to permanent Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. They may not be eager for a Palestinian state, but they don’t want to be the enablers of a one-state solution in which Palestinians are pushed out.

Right now, the 20-point plan — and Trump’s performance in Egypt — hint that he is still dreaming of a Gaza Riviera real estate bonanza. And Kushner may be trying to revive his “Peace to Prosperity Plan,” which failed dismally in 2020 during Trump’s first term.

Both are pipe dreams because they depend on Arab acquiescence in perpetual occupation of the Palestinians.

Trump’s true achievement is the momentum he has created with the ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But, contrary to his declaration in Egypt, he can’t “do it alone.” He needs a broader vision to get his peace plans off the ground.

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