Even as its forces prepare to launch a full-scale offensive into Gaza City, several long-standing supporters of Israel — including Australia, Canada, France and the UK — are threatening to recognize a Palestinian state, joining nearly 150 other nations. Israeli leaders have reacted furiously, taking steps to render any such entity unviable. While the former effort is unhelpful, the latter will be disastrous to Israel’s long-term security. The U.S. should help its ally see the difference.

Frustration over the swelling pressure campaign is understandable. Recognition is aimed both at persuading Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza and keeping alive the possibility of a two-state solution. In fact, Western leaders are mostly appeasing domestic constituencies outraged by the suffering of ordinary Gazans. Israelis have a right to wonder why they aren’t putting equal effort into forcing Hamas to release its hostages and disarm, or leaning on the Palestinian Authority to reform.

Still, any recognition would be almost entirely symbolic. The same can’t be said for Israeli moves to expand settlements — including in an area known as E1 that would split Palestinian-held parts of the West Bank in two — and potentially annex swathes of the territory.

Fast-tracking construction of the new settlements last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “there will never be a Palestinian state.” He argues that the Oct. 7 attacks prove Israel cannot live side by side with a Palestinian-run territory, which would inevitably become a “springboard for terror.” More than 70% of Jewish Israelis agree.

What proponents of a “one-state solution” rarely address is what happens to the 5 million Palestinians who would be included within it. If they aren’t granted full citizenship — something more outspoken Israeli officials have ruled out — Israel risks becoming the apartheid state critics allege it is already. Expelling the population would amount to ethnic cleansing. Even voluntary mass departures would destabilize neighbors Jordan and Egypt. Plans to ship Gazans to war-torn African countries are, at best, far-fetched.

Rather than quelling terrorist attacks, permanently suppressing Palestinian aspirations would likely fuel an endless insurgency. Most important, it would further isolate Israel and could intensify anti-Semitism globally. Outright annexation could lead to sanctions by the European Union and others in the West. Even in the U.S., support for Israel is plummeting among Democrats and younger Republicans. Under a future administration, unquestioned American backing can’t be assumed.

In the region, Israel would almost certainly forfeit any hope of expanding the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and other neighbors, especially after its recent airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar. The United Arab Emirates has already declared that annexation is a “red line,” implying that the move could jeopardize its ties with the Jewish state. The Saudis have long made clear they won’t normalize relations absent some credible pathway to a two-state solution.

Having friends secures Israel’s place in the region and the world, as the remarkable coordinated response to Iranian missile barrages should’ve made clear. Rather than granting Israel a blank check, as some American officials would seem to prefer, the U.S. ought to remind its ally that keeping open the possibility of a Palestinian state is crucial to that wider acceptance. It should reaffirm its traditional opposition to new settlements or unilateral declarations of sovereignty over parts of the West Bank.

American officials could also usefully remind Western nations that no Palestinian state will be viable without Israeli buy-in. Rather than engaging in political stunts that will only harm the people they claim to be helping, they should work with Arab governments to force Hamas to disarm and surrender administration of Gaza, and to reform the Palestinian Authority: ushering in new, more accountable leadership; shrinking a bloated civil service; upgrading the security services; opening up the economy; and overhauling the education system. As should be painfully clear by now, there are no shortcuts to peace.

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