One phone call does not a treaty make, but President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine is worrying Taiwan. China will watch developments for any hint on whether a resolution spells a similar future for the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te’s government should consider what it can offer Trump to avoid becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China rivalry. It’s a delicate balance: Appeasing the U.S. leader doesn’t only mean figuring out what he wants, but interpreting how American policy toward the island might be changing.

The U.S. State Department updated language on its website recently to remove a line that stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” The last time the same fact sheet cut the sentence was in May 2022, under former President Joe Biden's administration. It was reinstated about a month later, following protests from China.

Figuring out what Trump wants is a lesson Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is learning in real time. The phone call between the U.S. and Russian leaders last week upended years of American policy, with some diplomats describing it as a sellout, and accusing the U.S. leader of giving in to Russia's key demands even before negotiations have begun. Trump spoke to Zelenskyy too, but notably, only after Putin.

For the U.S. president, it’s simple — it’s partly about money. Estimates from Bloomberg Economics show that protecting Ukraine and expanding their own militaries could cost Europe’s major powers an additional $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years, a cost the Trump administration no longer seems willing to help bear. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has committed approximately $56.3 billion in security assistance. Trump has also previously said that he wants to recoup the money Washington has spent on the conflict by securing $500 billion in mineral rights from Ukraine.

Ukraine provides a useful foil for Taiwan. Taipei is also dealing with the threat of a mightier power on its doorstep — one that has consistently talked about unifying with it, by force if necessary. The island’s leaders have been vocal in their support for Ukraine, but also used it to convince their own voters that they can’t afford to be complacent in the face of Chinese aggression. Beijing has been flying a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait, and launched drills in the waters around the island. That’s prompted Taipei to announce increases in army spending, and extend military service for eligible males.

For decades, Taiwan has been dependent on American defense equipment, deterrence and diplomacy, and has needed Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” to maintain the status quo. This approach was designed to signal to Beijing that if there was an unprovoked attack, America would get involved. Biden had insinuated on more than one occasion that the U.S. would come to Taipei’s defense.

Under Trump, there are no such assurances. Chieh-Ting Yeh, a venture investor and a director of U.S. Taiwan Watch, told me that any agreement with Putin over Ukraine highlights how the president sees himself first and foremost: as a dealmaker. “There’s a lot of anxiety in Taiwan about what to cram into the gift package being offered to Trump,” Yeh told me. “There will always be the possibility it’s on the table for a deal with China, and this is something President Lai Ching-te needs to take a realistic look at, in terms of how to deal with the president.”

Domestically, Lai’s got a full plate. The three main political parties are blaming each other for the island’s deepening divisions. The defense budget, in particular, is proving to be problematic, with the opposition China-leaning Kuomintang party blocking increases in spending. Lai has been unable to break through the ceaseless political gridlock, despite Beijing’s growing military actions, and Trump’s public demands to invest more in its own security.

Trump is also unhappy with Taiwan’s record-level trade surplus, and has complained that the island “stole” America’s semiconductor industry. He’s threatened heavy tariffs, insisting future production capacity should be housed in the U.S.

Taipei is already looking to address the tariffs. In a hastily convened press conference on Friday, Lai said a special budget will be used for military spending, lifting it to above 3% of GDP. He also said the island will expand investment in the U.S. and buy more goods from there. Meanwhile, the deputy economy minister has been putting forward Taipei’s position to U.S. officials last week. And Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s board met in Arizona for the first time, another sign of its commitment to making chips in the U.S.

These are important steps, but the island should also make use of its existing friends it has in the Trump cabinet, many who appear strongly supportive of its right to exist. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have both publicly stated that their commitment to Taiwan’s defense is non-negotiable.

But whether the president is as committed is unclear. He has dithered over whether he would step in if if China were to invade. Elon Musk, the billionaire leading Trump’s government cost-cutting efforts and a close adviser, has previously argued Americans shouldn’t be drawn into the conflict.

That we are reduced to a state of global geopolitics where the fate of places like Ukraine and Taiwan are effectively bargaining chips speaks to the transactional times we live in. Trump’s game is clear. Taipei should play the best hand it can.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.

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