What to expect from the 2026 hurricane season? The first major forecast is out

It’s as if no time has passed since Florida residents let out a collective sigh of relief after a quiet hurricane season came to a close in November.

But June 1, the start of hurricane season, approaches. And with it, comes new predictions.

The earliest of which was released Thursday by Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane forecasting capabilities.

Experts behind the forecast are anticipating a “somewhat below-average” season. The reason for the meek forecast? An expected transition to a strong El Niño during peak hurricane season.

The early season forecast calls for 13 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and two will become major hurricanes.

An average hurricane season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane seasons that coincide with robust El Niños typically bring increased wind shear that can disrupt developing storms. And while a less active season is welcome, experts are quick to say it takes just one storm to cause destruction.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist involved in the forecast, wrote in an email to the Tampa Bay Times that the outlook is an information tool, not a preparedness tool.

“We stress that all coastal residents prepare the same for every hurricane season regardless of seasonal forecasts,” Klotzbach wrote.

An incoming El Niño

The globe is currently experiencing a neutral phase between El Niño and La Niña, federal forecasters announced Thursday.

The year-to-year global climate pattern unfolds in three phases: El Niño, La Niña and a neutral stage.

Though it doesn’t work like clockwork, the cycle refers to changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that affect weather across the globe.

Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center say La Niña has transitioned to neutral conditions over the last month. During the May through July timeframe, an El Niño is likely to emerge, and continue for the rest of the year.

Peak hurricane season is typically mid-August to mid-October.

Forecasters said the El Niño could “dominate” the meteorological ingredients behind this hurricane season.

The characteristics of the coming hurricane season are similar to a few past seasons: 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023, the university said. All these years had a moderate or strong El Niño, coupled with a relatively warm Atlantic, Klotzbach wrote.

In all seasons, except 2023, tropical activity fell below an average hurricane season. On the flip side, 2023 was extremely active with 20 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

That was the year hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend region, bringing with it up to 12 feet of storm surge and up to 125 mph maximum sustained winds.

University forecasters noted Thursday that their April outlook is the first real glimpse at the unfolding climate conditions, but it isn’t stagnant and is subject to change. They plan to update the forecast in June, July and August.

Another factor, sea surface temperatures

This year, water temperatures are sending mixed signals, according to university researchers.

Warm waters are like jet fuel for storms, providing energy for hurricanes to ramp up.

Sea surface temperatures are running warmer than normal in the western Atlantic, while waters are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropics.

Warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic in April is typically indicative of a busy season. But cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are often associated with quieter seasons.

Over the last several weeks, trade winds across the eastern Atlantic have been stronger than normal, leading to cooler waters, the university said.

If water temperatures continue to warm at the current rate, water temperatures could play a secondary role in the season, Klotzbach wrote.

“The stronger the El Niño, the more it tends to dominate,” Klotzbach wrote in an email. “That’s why 2023 was so noteworthy.”

Charts created by Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, showed the ocean heat content in early April in waters where Atlantic hurricanes form. McNoldy wrote in an email to the Times that the metric is more robust than sea surface temperatures because it measures through the depth of the ocean.

Across the board, ocean heat content was running at or below average in those waters.

McNoldy wrote that he’s confident that the strong El Niño will be the main story for forecasting this hurricane season.

What about the Gulf of Mexico?

Storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico are typically less affected by El Niños than storms that form in the Caribbean or the Atlantic, Klotzbach wrote.

An August forecast from the European model showed that wind shear is likely to be strong in the Caribbean Sea.

However, the forecast shows less signs of shear in the Gulf. On top of that, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are running warmer than average ― although McNoldy wrote that could change by summer.

“There isn’t a huge reduction expected in storms forming in the Gulf,” Klotzbach wrote.

But there is a silver lining. A strong El Niño is likely to tamp down on storms forming in waters around the Gulf, which could mean fewer hurricanes tracking into the Gulf.

What’s the probability of a storm near Florida?

Along with the possibility of fewer storms this season, there is a lowered chance of a major hurricane making landfall along a U.S. coast, according to researchers.

The university expects there is a 32% chance of a landfalling major hurricane along the U.S. coastline, down from the typical 43% chance.

The university also estimates the probability of a named storm, hurricane or a major hurricane falling within 50 miles of East Coast and Gulf Coast states.

This year, those numbers fell below the climatological average.

However, Florida still had the greatest probability of a named storm, hurricane, and major hurricane falling within that distance, with a 74% chance, 43% chance and a 21% chance, respectively.

The largest uncertainty with the early season forecast, researchers said, was just how strong the coming El Niño will be at the peak of hurricane season.

_____