FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — An independent election analysis gives Democrats a slightly better — but still not good — chance of winning the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Florida following the entrance of the newest candidate, Alexander Vindman.

The ratings change was one of two updates Thursday from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

It shifted the Florida U.S. Senate to “likely Republican,” from its previous status as “safe Republican.” And it shifted the reelection prospects of U.S. Jon Ossoff, D-Georgia, from “toss up” to “leans Democratic.”

Overall, the analysis concluded, Republicans are still likely to maintain control of the U.S. Senate after this year’s midterm elections.

The reason for the Florida shift: the entrance into the race on Tuesday of Vindman, the retired Army lieutenant colonel who provided critical evidence for the first impeachment of President Donald Trump during his first term in office. Vindman and his family now live in Broward County.

“Democrats did just get a candidate there who at the very least is going to raise a boatload of money,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in his review of U.S. Senate races.

On Wednesday, Vindman’s campaign touted what it said was “record breaking” fundraising — $1.7 million from 36,000 donations — in the first 24 hours of his candidacy.

The money and the Crystal Ball assessment don’t mean that U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody, the Republican appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to fill the seat when former U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio became secretary of state, isn’t favored to win.

“To be clear, we don’t see this as a top-tier race — Florida has very clearly moved to the right even as some reversion seems likely this cycle, and much more than money is needed for Democrats to really put this race into play,” Kondik said in the analysis.

Still, the Crystal Ball noted that “historically, appointees have a little more to prove than elected incumbents, although that is another factor that probably matters less now than in the past. Regardless, Moody herself does have an electoral track record of her own, winning statewide attorney general races by relatively impressive margins in 2018 and 2022,” Crystal Ball said.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is named for its founder, political scientist Larry Sabato.

Two other independent political handicappers, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales haven’t updated their Senate analyses since Vindman entered the race. Both list Florida as “solid” Republican.

Other Democrats seeking the U.S. Senate nomination include Jennifer Jenkins, who excited and heartened Democrats when she defeated a conservative School Board member in Brevard County, and state Rep. Angie Nixon of Jacksonville.

Republicans have significant advantages in Florida, including 1.46 million more registered voters than the Democrats. And Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024.

---------

©2026 South Florida Sun Sentinel. Visit at sun-sentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.