Mexico political risk hits Peru level as Sheinbaum support sags

Alex Vasquez, Bloomberg News on Dec 2, 2025

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MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s political risk has crept up to levels seen in Peru, as Mexicans voice mounting frustration over cartel-fueled crime, corruption and a stagnant economy.

The nation’s political risk surpassed that of Argentina and Colombia in November to reach a score of 55 — the same as Peru’s, where political instability has seen eight presidents take office over the past decade, according to an index calculated by AtlasIntel and published Tuesday. In October, Mexico’s risk score stood at 47.

The index grades political risk on a scale that ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 representing maximum risk and imminent danger of collapse. The score is based on a composite of institutional instability, social conflict, crime and corruption.

Similar to Peru’s capital, Mexico City played host to a surprisingly large Generation Z protest last month that at times turned violent, injuring dozens of police and civilians. Many marchers voiced indignation at chronic gangland violence and corruption scandals across the country.

The AtlasIntel poll showed that 77% of those surveyed consider it very or somewhat likely that attacks or murders involving gangs will increase in Mexico, where so far this year 10 local mayors have been gunned down. The most prominent among them was Carlos Manzo, formerly the mayor of a Uruapan in western Michoacan state. His assassination last month at the hands of a cartel hitman in a crowded public plaza sparked a wave of discontent that inspired many Gen Z marchers and others to take to the streets.

Manzo was an outspoken critic of Sheinbaum’s security policies who argued for a much tougher-line against the cartels.

The AtlasIntel poll also pointed to a wide-spread expectation of rising crime, with 76% saying they consider an increase in robberies and assaults very or somewhat likely. Meanwhile, 72% said they expect more violent protests over the next six months.

Sheinbaum’s popularity sags

Meanwhile, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approval rating slid to 61% in November from 64% in October. Her disapproval rose to nearly 35% from about 29%, according to the poll.

Respondents were also downbeat on the government’s fight against corruption, with 71% expecting more revelations of large-scale fraud in the next six months.

Just starting her second year in office, Mexico’s first woman president is also facing down a widening fuel smuggling scandal that has implicated institutions including the Navy. The case was also seen influencing the resignation last week of Attorney General Alejandro Gertz Manero.

Despite the regular drip of negative headlines, nearly 58% of those surveyed think the government has handled fuel smuggling well or very well, while almost 66% hold a favorable opinion of the Navy, which was put in charge of running ports by Sheinbaum’s predecessor.

The survey showed that Mexico’s top problems are corruption (51%), followed by insecurity, crime and drug trafficking (45%), and inflation (36%).

In another possible trouble spot for Sheinbaum’s leftist Morena party, a 45% plurality of respondents said they don’t have an ideology. Another 34% described their ideology as right-wing, while only 12% said they identify with the left.

In recent weeks, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego , a fierce conservative critic of Sheinbaum, has toyed with entering electoral politics despite a large tax dispute with the government.

AtlasIntel surveyed 3,509 people in Mexico between Nov. 22-27. The poll has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.