When Stacy Garrity rallied supporters in McCandless in late September, she acknowledged it "won't be easy" to oust Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The Republican state treasurer's uphill battle next year against a widely popular governor got even steeper on Tuesday, when Democrats racked up wins all over the ballot and across Pennsylvania and the U.S. — including in races where Mr. Shapiro campaigned.

Democratic tussling over the best paths to victory against a Republican Party dominated by President Donald Trump didn't matter much, political experts told the Post-Gazette. Moderates and left-wing candidates alike won decisively — from swing counties to longtime Trump strongholds across the state and country.

While Republicans point out that it's still early and Ms. Garrity is in a strong position to build name recognition and win over voters, Democratic strategists, pollsters and academics say the dominant performance bodes well for Mr. Shapiro and puts the spotlight on a tough environment not just for Ms. Garrity but for the GOP at large.

"What happened on Tuesday night wasn't just an old fashioned butt-kicking," said J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist and admaker based in Philadelphia. "It was an old fashioned butt-kicking in every part of the state."

Mr. Shapiro and several Democrats cited wins in a range of offices in counties previously won by Trump. These include Erie, Washington, Westmoreland, Beaver, Bucks, Luzerne, Northampton, Cumberland and more.

"If there was any good news for Republicans in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, I haven't found it yet," Mr. Balaban said.

Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania public affairs executive and a Democrat, said the results made clear the daunting challenge facing Ms. Garrity and Republicans. He noted she campaigned in Bucks County, where the GOP "got wiped out" in row office and judgeship elections.

"I don't see what positives they can take out of that," he said. "She still has to raise money, and I don't think that performance [Tuesday] helps her raise money."

Christopher Borick, a political scientist and pollster at Muhlenberg College, said that knocking Mr. Shapiro out of Harrisburg was always going to be tough.

"He's a popular governor with a history of electoral success, and the historical cycles of American politics suggested it would be a better year for Democrats," he said. "All of that is elevated by what happened [Tuesday], where the breadth and intensity of Democrats' success in Pennsylvania and beyond demonstrated a climate that is not conducive to Republicans."

Mr. Borick said that there is traditionally a "pretty strong connection between off-year elections and the midterms," forcing Ms. Garrity to fight not only a "well-funded, popular incumbent," but "against history."

Mr. Balaban said Tuesday's elections reinforced a consistent theme over the last decade: When Trump is on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Republicans do better than expected; when he's not, Republicans perform worse than expected.

"It should be very unnerving for fans of Stacy Garrity," he said. "We have no idea what the environment will be like a year from now, but if she were to win, it would literally be different than any other election during the Trump era. It would be a singularity in Pennsylvania."

Democrats and Republicans alike said that what's true today may not be true come 2026, when Ms. Garrity presumably faces Mr. Shapiro, who has not announced an re-election bid.

How a state budget impasse and federal government shutdown play out with impacted voters may factor in the race.

Republicans and the Garrity campaign have targeted the 130-day state budget delay as a sign Mr. Shapiro hasn't lived up to his bipartisan background and "get [stuff] done" mantra. Mr. Shapiro argues the Republican-controlled state Senate is playing political games. So far, Mr. Shapiro hasn't seen a dent in popularity during the standoff, according to polling.

Mr. Borick said circumstances ranging from the economy to Trump's standing in the state heading into next fall could shift and give the Republicans more hope.

"You can understand why Republicans are happy about their choice," he said of Ms. Garrity, a retired U.S. Army Reserve colonel and businesswoman from Bradford County.

The two-term treasurer last year surpassed Mr. Shapiro's 2022 record for most votes cast for a statewide candidate, receiving more than 3.5 million votes. Mr. Shapiro at the time stayed out of the race and did not endorse her Democratic opponent, Erin McClelland.

"She's got an electoral record of success, a pretty good narrative to share her personal story with voters," Mr. Borick said. "If I'm appraising candidate strength, she possesses lots of those that I would look for.

"But we've seen really good candidates that might be very capable of winning an office just come up against the wrong person at the wrong time. Right now, the timing and the opponent don't look optimal for her."

The Garrity campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

But the state Republican Party, which on Wednesday acknowledged the need to better communicate its core messages, said Ms. Garrity's position will only improve as her campaign moves forward.

"Treasurer Stacy Garrity is doing a phenomenal job of getting around the commonwealth and already helping to solve some of the problems that are facing Pennsylvania, like her bridge loan program to help keep services open during the Shapiro Shutdown," James Markley, the state GOP spokesman, said Friday.

"The 2025 election is behind us, and the Republican Party of Pennsylvania is focusing on doing the tough things needed to activate Republicans and speak to voters all around the commonwealth."

Mr. Markley said the party looks forward to shedding light on how the governor "is failing Pennsylvanians every single day."

"The more voters get to know Stacy Garrity, the more they'll like her and understand her vision for Pennsylvania is the right way forward," he said.

Vince Galko, a Republican strategist based in northeastern Pennsylvania, said Tuesday's election was tough for Republicans because "they're in the White House."

"Next year will be solely squared on Governor Shapiro, and anytime you run for re-election it's a referendum for the incumbent and have you done enough to have your contract renewed," he said. "Stacy Garrity will make a strong case that Pennsylvanians haven't gotten a good return on their investment."

Mr. Galko added that Mr. Shapiro, consistently named among potential Democratic contenders for the White House in 2028, must "dance the fine line" of holding to perceptions of him as a moderate while occasionally leaning "harder to the woke left."

And questions about leadership with the state budget more than four months behind will "no question be used against him by opponents — whether Garrity or [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom" in a potential 2028 presidential primary, Mr. Galko said.

After the election Tuesday, Mr. Shapiro said the sweeping victories for Democrats amounted to a rejection of "extremism" from the Trump administration.

"In Pennsylvania and across the country, folks came together to reject the chaos, higher prices and attacks on our foundational rights coming from Washington and chose a better path forward — including in counties and communities President Trump won just last year," he posted on X.

The governor had campaigned in Virginia and New Jersey for both states' new governors-elect, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, respectively. Ms. Garrity supported Republican former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli in his failed bid against Ms. Sherrill.

The governor also campaigned heavily in favor of retaining three Democratic state Supreme Court justices in what became a costly and contentious race, but eventually one-sided in both spending and results. His campaign team in a memo shared with reporters this past week said the governor recognized the race, which secured the court's Democratic 5-2 majority, as one of the most important in the country this year.

Mr. Shapiro released a TV and digital ad, helped to raise funds for the "yes vote" campaign's war chest through a host of calls, emails and events, and launched a labor canvas event in Pittsburgh focused on retention. He also participated in state Democrats' robocall the day before the election, reaching 150,000 voters to remind "them of the stakes" of blunting conservatives' efforts to reshape the court.

All the justices — for whom Ms. Garrity and Trump strongly urged a "no vote" — won another term with more than 2 million votes each.

Matthew Brouillette, president and CEO of the Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs — associated with billionaire and Republican megadonor Jeffrey Yass — told the Post-Gazette in a statement that, "It was unfortunate that while the left was able to rally more than 40 groups to fund and fight for [Pennsylvania's] progressive justices, the right clearly lacked the motivation to get engaged like we hoped."

He said the "vote no" effort showed that judges across the state "should take note that they won't get a pass on retention elections when they choose to legislate from the bench rather than interpret the law."

Lew Irwin, a political scientist at Duquesne University, said Tuesday marked a "solid win" for Mr. Shapiro and Democrats.

But Republicans aren't going "to sit on their hands for the next year," he said, noting they'll look to reverse Democrats' overperformance in special elections, court races and other elections nationwide since Trump took office in January.

This includes a high-profile $100 million Wisconsin Supreme Court battle that maintained a liberal majority, and a historic race in Lancaster County in March, when a Democrat won a state Senate seat held by Republicans for more than a century.

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