Tropical Storm Melissa expected to bring heavy rain, dangerous floods to Haiti, Jamaica

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Oct 21, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Tropical Storm Melissa is on track to threaten Haiti as a hurricane over the weekend, bringing heavy rains and life-threatening flooding to the island nation. Jamaica and Cuba also could feel the effects as the storm meanders slowly north in the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday put Haiti’s southern peninsula under a hurricane watch and Jamaica under a tropical storm watch. A watch means those conditions are possible in the next 48 hours.

“The big story is going to be the rainfall,” said Michael Brennan, head of the NHC, in a live broadcast Tuesday afternoon.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 5 to 10 inches of rain through Friday, enough to cause dangerous mudslides and flooding to the mountainous island of Hispanola shared by the two nations. Jamaica and Puerto Rico could see 1 to 3 inches of rain through Friday, enough to cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico, the hurricane center said.

Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday, and it was expected to continue to strengthen over the next few days as it slowly moves north.

Overnight, Melissa slowed down a bit, and it’s expected to hit the brakes even harder for the next few days as it creeps north toward Haiti and Jamaica. The forecast track from the NHC predicts Melissa will be a Category 1 hurricane somewhere between Haiti and Jamaica on Saturday. Its slow movement will likely add to the rainfall and flash-flooding threats.

The hurricane center noted that there’s “significant uncertainty” about the path of Melissa, partially because long-range storm models are still spitting out a wide array of possible tracks. Some take the system over Haiti, others take it over Cuba, other shooting the gap between the islands.

Over the next week, Melissa is passing over some warmer-than-usual waters in the Caribbean, which has not seen a tropical storm or hurricane yet this season. And while hot water does typically fuel storms, meteorologists also pointed out there’s a good deal of wind shear near Melissa, which could destabilize it and prevent it from getting super strong, super fast.

“Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain,” they wrote.

The Hurricane Hunters are also scheduled to observe the system later Tuesday, which will bring extra information that helps determine where the storm is and where it might go.

_____