Chances rise for new storm to form in the Caribbean next week

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Oct 17, 2025

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There are two disturbances in the Atlantic basin, one of which could become the next named storm of the season in the Caribbean in the next week or so.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives both disturbances a low chance of developing anytime soon. As of 2 p.m. Eastern time Friday, the disturbance nearest to the Caribbean had no chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or stronger in the next two days and a 30% chance of formation within the next seven days.

Long-range storm models have consistently shown that this particular system could cross all the way from the coast of Africa to the central Caribbean.

The hurricane center noted that the system is likely to bring heavy rain to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move into the central Caribbean next week.

Overnight Thursday, some of those models — but not all — began to suggest that the system could take a sharp turn over Haiti and the Dominican Republic as it enters the central Caribbean.

Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist focused on hurricanes at the University of Miami’s CIMAS, posted on X Friday morning that it will be important to watch how quickly the system develops and how strong the trough to the north is at that time, the atmospheric phenomena that could potentially steer it north.

“Certainly folks all through the Caribbean, including the Greater Antilles, should keep an eye on this,” he said.

The next name on the storm list is Melissa.

Forecasters are also eyeing a non-tropical area of low pressure well off the coast of the Northeast U.S. with a very low chance of briefly developing at sea.

As of 2 p.m., the hurricane center held its chances of formation at 10% for the next two or seven days. They said there’s a “slight chance” it could develop some subtropical characteristics in the next few days before its swept into cooler waters.

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