Hurricane center drops chance system near Florida will form, but Atlantic wave could develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 4, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday dropped to 0% chances a pair of systems on either side of Florida could develop while keeping track of a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, a weak low-pressure area near the northwestern Bahamas continued to produce disorganized shower activity that had already made its way over Florida, but the NHC had dropped chances from 10% to 0% for development.

“This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds,” forecasters said. “Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few days.”

The National Weather Service in Melbourne issued a flood watch for the eastern Central Florida counties through Sunday with 1-3 inches of rain possible.

High tides may bring waters 1-2 feet higher than normal with flooding of low-lying roads near the shore likely, the NWS stated.

With a series of swells sent since last week from hurricanes Humberto and Imelda, the beaches should continue to get waves of 5 to 8 feet along with moderate beach and dune erosion as the NWS issued a high surf advisory coupled with a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches through the weekend.

A small craft advisory was also in effect with 7- to 10-foot waves near shore and 9-11 feet offshore.

Some areas of Brevard, Volusia and Martin counties that have had soil saturation could be more prone to flooding if excessive rain falls.

Flooding inland is already a risk.

“We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns River where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river flooding. The river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at Astor and is forecast to reach Action Stage at Geneva early next week,” the NWS stated.

Another system that had its chances dropped to 0% was a weak area of low pressure that had formed over the north-central Gulf with disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

“This system is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds,” forecasters said.

But the NHC gave a medium chance of development for a tropical wave that was located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Gradual development of the wave is possible over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 50% chance to develop in the next seven days.

It could become the 10th tropical cyclone of the 2025 season, and could form into Tropical Storm Jerry.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.