South Korea's Lee on track to win election, exit poll shows

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung is on track to win the presidential election, according to an exit poll released soon after the voting ended on Tuesday.

Lee, is projected to secure 51.7% of the vote, according to a joint exit poll by South Korea’s three broadcasters, KBS, MBC, SBS. His main rival, the ruling People Power Party’s candidate Kim Moon-soo, is estimated to get 39.3%, the survey of more than 80,000 voters showed.

The exit polls correctly predicted the outcome of 2022 elections when Lee lost by less than 1 percentage point, the smallest margin in South Korea’s electoral history. Lee has been consistently leading in most opinion polls in the run-up to the election.

The outcome of the vote is expected to mark a turning point for South Korea after six-months of chaos following former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law, a move that triggered the nation’s worst constitutional crisis in decades.

The incoming president faces immediate pressure to revive an economy that shrank at the start of the year and is now threatened by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The new leader will also face a deeply divided society further polarized by the aftermath of the martial law debacle, including the storming of a courthouse in January in scenes reminiscent of the Jan. 6 Capitol Hill riot in the U.S. and the arrest, impeachment and ousting of Yoon.

Following the exit poll, Acting Democratic Party leader Park Chan-dae said in an interview with broadcaster KBS that South Koreans had delivered their verdict on a regime that incited insurrection.

In an interview with YTN, Shin Dong-uk, a spokesperson for the ruling PPP, sounded as if he had already accepted defeat. Speaking in a hoarse voice, he said the exit polls fell short of what he expected and regretted that his party failed to let the public know of their candidate’s strengths in time for the vote.

A victory for Lee, 60, would mark a shift in South Korea’s economic, foreign and energy policies after the last three years of conservative rule. Lee, a progressive former labor lawyer, has advocated more government spending, stronger labor protections, and curbs on the power of South Korea’s family-run conglomerates.

The election outcome also has potential to impact foreign policy. While the candidates have largely indicated they will continue to build on trilateral relations with the U.S. and Japan, Lee favors a more balanced approach to dealing with Washington and Beijing, and the possibility of dialogue with Pyongyang.

He’s also urged a more measured approach to U.S. trade talks, accusing the interim government of rushing negotiations.

Kim also a former labor activist and once jailed under military rule, presents himself as a business-friendly conservative. He has pledged deregulation, support for SMEs and lower taxation. He also supports two-term presidencies, while he takes a much more pro-nuclear power stance than Lee.

“In Korea, our political landscape has long been dominated by constant battles between two major parties, to the point where it feels like the system itself is falling apart,” Park Sohyeon, a 22-year old college student, said earlier in the day after casting her vote in Seoul’s Seongdong district. “I hope that instead of fighting, these parties can begin working together toward a shared goal of building a better future for the country,” she added.

Park Hae-rang, a 23-year-old college student in Seoul, said she was largely opting for the least bad candidate in voting for Lee.

“I’m not totally satisfied with Lee’s pledges. When they were on TV to debate, it almost felt like they were out to quarrel and gossip about personal matters,” Park said. “But I’m not sure a candidate standing for a party that’s responsible for martial law can lead this country in the right direction, no matter how good their policies are.”

Park found time to appear at a polling station after spending whole day at a cram school to prepare for a license that would help her land a job after graduation.

“I want our voices, as people in our 20s, to be heard and more than that I want to see our country finally get a good leader and move on from all this turmoil.”

Long-time PPP supporter Lee Jungsook, 72, said she voted for Kim and worries for the future of democracy if candidate Lee becomes president.

Speaking in Seoul’s Seongdong District, she said she never wanted her loyalty and conviction to waver, but she acknowledged that the martial law controversy was deeply regrettable.

“It was a foolish move that never should have happened,” she said. Her elder son voted for Lee Jun-seok and voted shortly after 6 a.m. to avoid her bearing down on his choice, she said.

“It’s unfortunate that Lee Jun-seok entered the race,” Lee said. “He’s still too young and unprepared.”

Lee Jun-seok has divided the conservative vote with a campaign aimed largely at appealing to a younger and wider demographic than Kim as he seeks to build his credentials as a credible leader going forward. The exit poll showed his support at 7.7%.

Should Lee emerge victorious, he would be backed by the commanding majority the party already has in parliament. That means he would see few of the hurdles that Yoon faced in the legislative body. But for Kim, he would be facing resistance in the National Assembly from Day 1 as a president lacking that majority.

Securing a new trade deal with the U.S. will be among the top priorities in order to spare the export-reliant economy of the full weight of Trump’s punitive tariffs.

The 25% reciprocal levies slapped on South Korea were among the highest for a U.S. ally. While they have been suspended for 90 days, the leadership vacuum has limited progress in the negotiations. Additional sectoral tariffs will hurt key export sectors including semiconductors, cars, steel and aluminum.

Together they cast a long shadow over the economy South Korea’s new leader will inherit.

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—With assistance from Heesu Lee, Sam Kim, Jaehyun Eom and Ben Baris.