Marine Le Pen barred from 2027 French presidency run
Published in News & Features
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s presidential ambitions were dealt a potential death blow after she was convicted of embezzlement by a French court and barred from running in the next election in 2027.
Judges at the Paris criminal court found Le Pen and her National Rally party guilty of diverting millions of euros in European Union funds to finance activities related to their domestic agenda.
Le Pen was sentenced to two years in prison, with two more suspended, and given an immediate five-year election ban, complicating her ambitions of taking over from Emmanuel Macron in 2027. Judges suggested the two years could be served under electronic surveillance.
While an appeals court decision before the next election isn’t out of the question, it’s unlikely given the complexity of the case and number of defendants.
Le Pen, 56, who was a top contender for the 2027 presidential election according to recent polls, had said the prosecution was seeking her “political death” in making the request for an outright election ban during trial hearings.
“The ineligibility verdict probably means Le Pen’s political career is over,” said Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
The ruling may open a power vacuum within the French far right, which Le Pen worked for years to bring into the mainstream of national politics. A potential successor is National Rally’s 29-year-old party chief Jordan Bardella, who according to polls conducted ahead of the court ruling could be a viable option for claiming the presidency in 2027.
Markets seemed to take the news in stride as tariff concerns remain more immediate for investors. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a closely watched measure of risk, was two basis points wider at 73. France’s CAC 40 stock index added to losses in the wake of the decision, sliding 2%.
Le Pen’s trial centered on allegations that she and other party members elected to the European Parliament improperly used a budget allocation for E.U. aides. French investigators said the money was used to pay staff of the Front National — the party’s former name — who focused essentially on domestic politics, rather than E.U. matters.
The far-right leader has already framed the court case as a politically motivated attack. There’s a risk that Le Pen’s supporters would also view the ruling as a further symptom of an elitist system undermining their voices, at a time when Macron’s popularity remains low.
Observers have drawn parallels with U.S. President Donald Trump, who won a second term with a clutch of criminal cases hanging over him and, like Le Pen, has made trenchant opposition to immigration a cornerstone of his program.
“Her conviction will strengthen her aura in French society: that’s what we can learn from Trump-style American politics,” said Christophe Marion, a lawmaker from Macron’s party.
Messages of support poured in for Le Pen shortly after her conviction, with the Kremlin and Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban among the first to weigh in.
The presidential elections in Romania and the Le Pen verdict show that “democratic norms are being trampled upon,” in Europe, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
“Je suis Marine,” Orban tweeted following the ruling.
Italy’s deputy prime minister and leader of the League party Matteo Salvini called the ruling a “declaration of war by Brussels.”
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With assistance from Flavia Rotondi.
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